Real Oruro v Nacional Potosí prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real OruroDrawNacional Potosí

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Oruro 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Oruro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Oruro 45%, draw 22%, Nacional Potosí 33%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Real Oruro v Nacional PotosíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Real Oruro win45%

Draw22%

Nacional Potosí win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:00

RoundApertura · matchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Oruro

Nacional Potosí

14Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
11	Real Oruro	22	−15	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real oruro winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Real Oruro a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Oruro v Nacional Potosí~~2.04 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 28~~11 v 10

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Oruro win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Nacional Potosí win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Real Oruro or draw	67%	–	–
Real Oruro clean sheet	18%	–	–
Nacional Potosí clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.9 3.7 3.5 2.0 1 4.5 8.6 6.9 4.0 2 4.9 8.2 6.9 4.0 3 3.3 5.5 4.7 2.7 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Oruro down, Nacional Potosí across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,592 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Oruro at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nacional Potosí away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Real Oruro, 1.72 for Nacional Potosí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NAC 2–0 REA · REA 0–2 NAC · NAC 1–4 REA · REA 1–2 NAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug

REAL ORURO

DWLLWW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

NACIONAL POTOSÍ

LWWLDL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	23	+14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	−8	29
9	Blooming	23	+6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
11	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	−19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	−13	20
15	ABB	23	−18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20