Real Oruro v Aurora prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Real Oruro 1–0 Aurora REAL ORURO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Oruro win~~49%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.397

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Oruro win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Oruro was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–21–30
1′KICK-OFF Real Oruro v Aurora
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' F. Gatti · Real Oruro
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' E. Rivera · Real Oruro
35′We published Real Oruro at 49%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Ademar Rivera Sifuentes · Real Oruro
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Real Oruro 1–0 Aurora
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Real Oruro win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Real Oruro
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Real Oruro win: 49% at kick-off, 43% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Real Oruro 1–0 Aurora
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Real Oruro win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
42′Ademar Rivera Sifuentes scores for Real Oruro on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–10
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aurora · On: Ivan Huayhuata · Off: Alfredo·Amarilla
45′SECOND HALF Real Oruro 1–0 Aurora
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aurora · On: Rodrigo Ramallo · Off: Erwin Junior Sanchez
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aurora · On: Henry Vaca · Off: Ronaldo Sánchez
47′HALF-TIME Real Oruro 1–0 Aurora
83′We published Real Oruro at 49%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Real Oruro · On: Juan Montenegro · Off: Denis Pinto
83′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Real Oruro · On: Angel Quiñonez · Off: F. Gatti
83′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Oruro · On: Raul Ardaya · Off: Hernán Tifner
83′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Aurora · On: adrian pacheco · Off: leandro barro
83′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Aurora · On: David Alejandro Villca Coria · Off: Leonardo Viviani
83′🟨 YELLOW · 71' I. Vidaurre · Aurora
83′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Oruro · On: Rivaldo Omar Méndez Maraz · Off: Jhámil Rodrigo Ari Cruz
83′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Oruro · On: Juan Pablo Gómez Perez · Off: Ademar Rivera Sifuentes
83′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Juan Pablo Gómez Perez · Real Oruro
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Real Oruro win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
85′We published Real Oruro at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 83' David Alejandro Villca Coria · Aurora
90′We published Real Oruro at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Henry Vaca · Aurora
97′Ademar Rivera Sifuentes scores for Real Oruro on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Real Oruro 1–0 Aurora
FTReal Oruro 1–0 Aurora · Real Oruro win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Oruro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Oruro 49%, draw 21%, Aurora 30%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Real Oruro v AuroraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Oruro win49%

Draw21%

Aurora win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundApertura · matchday 22

Line-ups

Real Oruro

4-2-3-1

Aurora

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Oruro

Aurora

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Oruro

4-2-3-1

66 J. Aztete

18 Y. Calle

5 L. Corulo

22 E. Rivera

31 R. J. Balceras Cuellar

6 A. Rivera

26 H. Tifner

33 F. Gatti

65 A. F. Bravo Adan

30 J. Ari Cruz

9 D. Pinto

Coach · Marcelo Straccia

Substitutes

13 · I. Pena

23 · Y. Villegas

15 · D. Castellon

32 · R. Mendez

48 · J. Berrios

42 · R. Ardaya

77 · C. Siles

70 · J. P. Gomez

50 · J. Montenegro

10 · A. Quinonez

55 · S. Garcia

37 · J. Velez

Aurora

4-1-4-1

12 R. Cordano

16 L. Barro

22 J. Velazquez

4 I. Vidaurre

70 J. Torrico

5 A. Amarilla

69 A. Terrazas

14 H. Sanchez

19 E. Sanchez

8 L. Viviani

9 M. Rangel

Coach · David Diaz

Substitutes

1 · J. Terrazas

23 · I. Huayhuata

15 · J. Cordova

11 · H. Mojica

7 · H. Vaca

21 · M. Ortiz

25 · A. Rios

28 · O. Vaca

20 · A. Pacheco

10 · R. Ramallo

18 · S. Ferreira

26 · D. Villca

Our number · real oruro winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:32 · locked at kick-off

49% The market34%

Us49%

~~Market~~34%

We make Real Oruro a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Oruro v Aurora~~2.23 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 31~~11 v 6

~~The market · Real Oruro win~~34% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Oruro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Oruro win	49%	34%	+15
Draw	21%	26%	−5
Aurora win	30%	40%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	75%	64%	+11
Both teams to score	73%	66%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	91%	84%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	56%	44%	+12
Real Oruro or draw	70%	60%	+10
Real Oruro clean sheet	18%	–	–
Aurora clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.5 3.0 2.9 1 3.9 7.8 6.3 3.6 2 4.8 8.0 6.9 4.0 3 3.5 5.9 5.1 2.9 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Oruro down, Aurora across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,582 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Oruro at home: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Aurora away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Real Oruro, 1.74 for Aurora. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AUR 1–1 REA · REA 5–3 AUR · AUR 2–2 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

REAL ORURO

LDWLLW2–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 3–1

AURORA

DDWWLD0–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
9	Blooming	21	+7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	−10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	22	−16	20
14	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
15	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17