Oriente Petrolero v The Strongest prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oriente PetroleroDrawThe Strongest

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Oriente Petrolero 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oriente Petrolero are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oriente Petrolero 40%, draw 24%, The Strongest 35%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Oriente Petrolero v The StrongestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Oriente Petrolero win40%

Draw24%

The Strongest win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:30

RoundApertura · matchday 23

VenueEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oriente Petrolero

The Strongest

3Days since last match2

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

Last match: 23 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oriente petrolero winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Oriente Petrolero a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oriente Petrolero v The Strongest~~1.64 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 45~~5 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oriente Petrolero win	40%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
The Strongest win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Oriente Petrolero or draw	65%	–	–
Oriente Petrolero clean sheet	22%	–	–
The Strongest clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.0 6.0 5.0 2.5 1 6.5 11.0 7.9 4.0 2 5.7 8.5 6.4 3.3 3 3.1 4.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oriente Petrolero down, The Strongest across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,590 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.5% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oriente Petrolero at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). The Strongest away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Oriente Petrolero, 1.53 for The Strongest. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORI 1–1 THE · THE 2–1 ORI · THE 2–1 ORI · THE 1–2 ORI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug

ORIENTE PETROLERO

DLLWWD3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

THE STRONGEST

WWWWLW3–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17