Oriente Petrolero v Aurora prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oriente PetroleroDrawAurora

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Oriente Petrolero 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oriente Petrolero are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oriente Petrolero 54%, draw 23%, Aurora 23%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Oriente Petrolero v AuroraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Oriente Petrolero win54%

Draw23%

Aurora win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 24

VenueEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oriente Petrolero

Aurora

9Days since last match11

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oriente petrolero winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Oriente Petrolero a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oriente Petrolero v Aurora~~1.94 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 34 v 31~~5 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oriente Petrolero win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Aurora win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Oriente Petrolero or draw	77%	–	–
Oriente Petrolero clean sheet	31%	–	–
Aurora clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.1 4.8 3.2 1 8.0 10.5 5.9 2.4 2 8.2 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.3 6.2 3.7 4 2.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oriente Petrolero down, Aurora across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,592 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oriente Petrolero at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aurora away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Oriente Petrolero, 1.19 for Aurora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUR 2–2 ORI · ORI 3–0 AUR · AUR 5–1 ORI · ORI 5–0 AUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug

ORIENTE PETROLERO

DLLWWD3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

AURORA

DWWLDL2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	23	+14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	−8	29
9	Blooming	23	+6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
11	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	−19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	−13	20
15	ABB	23	−18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20