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Oriente Petrolero v ABB

Oriente Petrolero

1–0Full time

ABB

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Oriente Petrolero 1–0 ABB ORIENTE PETROLERO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oriente Petrolero win~~70%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.136

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.135

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oriente Petrolero win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oriente Petrolero was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–16–13
1′KICK-OFF Oriente Petrolero v ABB
2′Much as we predicted: Oriente Petrolero was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–16–13
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Juan Felipe Fajardo Gallego · ABB
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Alejandro Bejarano · ABB
45′HALF-TIME Oriente Petrolero 0–0 ABB
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Oriente Petrolero · On: Nabil Nacif Joffre · Off: Matias Aponte Parada Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Oriente Petrolero · On: Leonardo Vaca · Off: Carlos Enrique Saucedo Céspedes Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Oriente Petrolero · On: Joffre·Escobar · Off: Fabricio Perez Guzman Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Oriente Petrolero 0–0 ABB
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' ABB · On: J. Briceno · Off: Layonel Figueroa Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Oriente Petrolero · On: Juvenal Rojas Caraballo · Off: Julio·Herrera Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Oriente Petrolero · On: Dico Roca · Off: D. Rodriguez Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ABB · On: E. Paniagua · Off: Gary Rea Mendieta Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Juan Sebastian Reyes · ABB
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' ABB · On: Jairo Diego Rojas Montaño · Off: Adriel Guillermo Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' ABB · On: Fabio Zamora · Off: Alejandro Bejarano Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Oriente Petrolero 1–0 ABB
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Oriente Petrolero 1–0 ABB · Leonardo Vaca
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Joffre·Escobar · Oriente Petrolero
90′🟥 RED CARD · 94' E. Paniagua · ABB
FTFULL TIME Oriente Petrolero 1–0 ABB
FTOriente Petrolero 1–0 ABB · Oriente Petrolero win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Oriente Petrolero win70%

Draw17%

ABB win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Oriente Petrolero

4-1-4-1

1 A. W. Torrez Suarez

21 M. Aponte

3 Mizael Monteiro

44 F. Lopez

6 D. Rodriguez

77 J. Herrera

19 F. Perez

20 J. Lovera

40 O. Perdomo

7 J. Flores

33 C. Saucedo

Coach · Gustavo Florentin

Substitutes

13 · J. Bernal

42 · D. Roca

28 · J. Velasco

4 · M. Bonilla

17 · S. Galindo

8 · O. Siles

23 · J. Rojas

29 · J. Escobar

11 · L. Vaca

91 · N. Nacif

41 · J. Guzman

35 · J. Vaca

ABB

5-4-1

25 J. Cuellar

75 D. Valda

2 J. Riasco

55 A. Seimandi

22 S. Reyes

40 A. Guillermo

7 L. Figueroa

3 A. Chumacero

30 A. Bejarano

18 G. Rea Mendieta

11 J. F. Fajardo

Coach · Walter Flores

Substitutes

1 · A. Riascos

14 · C. Jemio

37 · O. Preciado

42 · Z. La Fuente

33 · F. Zamora

19 · A. Camacho

5 · S. Claure

9 · J. Briceno

31 · B. Espinoza

10 · E. Paniagua

24 · J. Rojas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Oriente Petrolero

4-1-4-1

1 A. W. Torrez Suarez

21 M. Aponte

3 Mizael Monteiro

44 F. Lopez

6 D. Rodriguez

77 J. Herrera

19 F. Perez

20 J. Lovera

40 O. Perdomo

7 J. Flores

33 C. Saucedo

Coach · Gustavo Florentin

Substitutes

13 · J. Bernal

42 · D. Roca

28 · J. Velasco

4 · M. Bonilla

17 · S. Galindo

8 · O. Siles

23 · J. Rojas

29 · J. Escobar

11 · L. Vaca

91 · N. Nacif

41 · J. Guzman

35 · J. Vaca

ABB

5-4-1

25 J. Cuellar

75 D. Valda

2 J. Riasco

55 A. Seimandi

22 S. Reyes

40 A. Guillermo

7 L. Figueroa

3 A. Chumacero

30 A. Bejarano

18 G. Rea Mendieta

11 J. F. Fajardo

Coach · Walter Flores

Substitutes

1 · A. Riascos

14 · C. Jemio

37 · O. Preciado

42 · Z. La Fuente

33 · F. Zamora

19 · A. Camacho

5 · S. Claure

9 · J. Briceno

31 · B. Espinoza

10 · E. Paniagua

24 · J. Rojas

Our number · oriente petrolero winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

70% The market70%

Us70%

~~Market~~70%

We make Oriente Petrolero a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oriente petrolero win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oriente Petrolero win	70%	70%	0
Draw	17%	18%	−1
ABB win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	60%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	51%	51%	0
Oriente Petrolero or draw	87%	88%	−1
Oriente Petrolero clean sheet	35%	–	–
ABB clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.1 2.2 1 6.1 7.5 3.7 2 8.5 8.9 4.7 3 7.4 7.7 4.1 4 4.9 5.1 2.7 5 2.7 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Oriente Petrolero down, ABB across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,574 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oriente Petrolero at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). ABB away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.65 goals for Oriente Petrolero, 1.07 for ABB. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ABB 3–1 ORI · ABB 5–2 ORI · ORI 3–3 ABB

Form · last six in Primera División

ORIENTE PETROLERO

WWDLLW3–2 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0

ABB

LDLWLL0–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–6 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	+34	45
2	Bolívar	20	+32	45
3	The Strongest	20	+17	42
4	Real Potosí	20	+13	32
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	+9	30
6	Aurora	20	+4	30
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Blooming	20	+8	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	+2	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	20	−18	21
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	20	−14	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	−13	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14