Nacional Potosí v Guabirá prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nacional PotosíDrawGuabirá

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nacional Potosí 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nacional Potosí are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nacional Potosí 64%, draw 19%, Guabirá 17%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Nacional Potosí v GuabiráBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nacional Potosí win64%

Draw19%

Guabirá win17%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nacional Potosí

Guabirá

4Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
9	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nacional potosí winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Nacional Potosí a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nacional Potosí v Guabirá~~2.38 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 30~~9 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nacional Potosí win	64%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Guabirá win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Nacional Potosí or draw	83%	–	–
Nacional Potosí clean sheet	32%	–	–
Guabirá clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.6 3.1 2.0 1 6.7 8.4 4.6 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 6.5 7.3 4.2 4 3.9 4.4 2.5 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Nacional Potosí down, Guabirá across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,589 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nacional Potosí at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Guabirá away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.38 goals for Nacional Potosí, 1.15 for Guabirá. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GUA 2–1 NAC · GUA 1–0 NAC · NAC 3–0 GUA · NAC 3–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug

NACIONAL POTOSÍ

LWWLDL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 0–1

GUABIRÁ

LDLWLD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17