Nacional Potosí v Bolívar prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Nacional Potosí 0–1 Bolívar BOLÍVAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bolívar win~~44%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.310

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bolívar win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bolívar 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Nacional Potosí v Bolívar
45′SECOND HALF Nacional Potosí 0–0 Bolívar
46′HALF-TIME Nacional Potosí 0–0 Bolívar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nacional Potosí · On: Tommy Tobar · Off: Wilson Álvarez
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bolívar · On: Luiz Fernando Paz Vargas · Off: Jesus Manuel Sagredo
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Bolívar win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Bolívar win 34%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–41–33
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Oscar Baldomar · Nacional Potosí
57′We said Bolívar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 26–42–32
62′We said Bolívar at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Nacional Potosí 0–1 Bolívar
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Bolívar win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Bolívar win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Bolívar win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
64′dorny romero scores for Bolívar on 63′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nacional Potosí · On: C. Abastoflor · Off: Schneider Peña Vaca
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bolívar · On: E. Rivero · Off: José Sagredo
70′We said Bolívar at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jhon velasquez · Bolívar
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Bolívar win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
77′We said Bolívar at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nacional Potosí · On: Maicon Solis · Off: Maximiliano Núñez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bolívar · On: Erwin Mario Saavedra · Off: Carlos Melgar
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bolívar · On: Damian Batallini · Off: Jhon velasquez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nacional Potosí · On: D. Hoyos · Off: P. Azogue
84′We said Bolívar at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–1 · 0–8–92
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nacional Potosí · On: juan orellana · Off: Oscar Baldomar
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Bolívar win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
89′We said Bolívar at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bolívar · On: Ervin vaca · Off: Robson Matheus
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Jesus Manuel Sagredo · Bolívar
92′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Jesus Manuel Sagredo · Bolívar
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Carlos Lampe · Bolívar
96′PENALTY MISSED · 90+6' Tommy Tobar · Nacional Potosí
97′0–1 at the end. Our 44% on Bolívar comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Santiago Echeverria · Bolívar
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Dairon Asprilla · Bolívar
FTFULL TIME Nacional Potosí 0–1 Bolívar
FTNacional Potosí 0–1 Bolívar · Bolívar win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bolívar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nacional Potosí 32%, draw 24%, Bolívar 44%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Nacional Potosí v BolívarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nacional Potosí win32%

Draw24%

Bolívar win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundApertura · matchday 22

VenueEstadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Line-ups

Nacional Potosí

4-4-2

Bolívar

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nacional Potosí

Bolívar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
9	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nacional Potosí

4-4-2

23 Pedro Galindo

34 K. Medina

5 S. Alvarez

33 L. Demiquel

16 A. Torrico

10 M. Núñez

18 P. Azogue

21 Ó. Baldomar

28 S. Peña

19 W. Álvarez

11 M. Tomianovic

Coach · Dailer Gutiérrez

Substitutes

2 · Rodrigo Fabián Ávila Sóliz

7 · M. Solís

25 · J. Orellana

27 · C. Abastoflor

9 · T. Tobar

1 · E. Arauz

15 · Jhojan Fenando Arce Pari

14 · Juan Batista

20 · E. Cano

22 · D. Hoyos

30 · Y. Martínez

26 · K. Quiroz

Bolívar

4-4-2

1 C. Lampe

2 Jesús Sagredo

5 S. Echeverría

3 X. Arreaga

4 Jesús Sagredo

14 R. Matheus

22 A. Ayhuana

80 C. Melgar

7 J. Velásquez

27 D. Asprilla

77 D. Romero

Coach · A. Restrepo

Substitutes

10 · B. Arce

99 · D. Batallini

9 · M. Cauteruccio

18 · L. Chávez

35 · E. Rivero

19 · J. García

33 · F. Mena

11 · B. Miranda

13 · D. Méndez

8 · L. Paz

26 · E. Saavedra

6 · E. Vaca

Our number · bolívar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market55%

Us44%

~~Market~~55%

We make Bolívar a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nacional Potosí v Bolívar~~1.48 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 28 v 48~~9 v 2

~~The market · Bolívar win~~55% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nacional Potosí win	32%	22%	+10
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Bolívar win	44%	55%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	64%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Nacional Potosí or draw	56%	45%	+11
Nacional Potosí clean sheet	17%	–	–
Bolívar clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 6.4 6.1 3.6 1 5.2 10.5 8.8 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.3 6.4 3.8 3 2.1 3.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nacional Potosí down, Bolívar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,586 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nacional Potosí at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bolívar away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Nacional Potosí, 1.78 for Bolívar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOL 1–1 NAC · BOL 1–4 NAC · NAC 0–2 BOL · BOL 5–2 NAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

NACIONAL POTOSÍ

WLWWLD3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2

BOLÍVAR

WWWWWW4–2 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17