Independiente Petrolero v ABB prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Independiente PetroleroDrawABB

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Independiente Petrolero 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente Petrolero are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente Petrolero 65%, draw 19%, ABB 16%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Independiente Petrolero v ABBBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Independiente Petrolero win65%

Draw19%

ABB win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundApertura · matchday 23

VenueEstadio Olimpico Patria

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

4-2-3-1

ABB

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente Petrolero

ABB

4Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
14	ABB	22	−16	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

4-2-3-1

12 Jhunior Vera

2 S. Torres

50 Roni Santos

3 L. Crescencio

34 G. Mendoza

26 L. Sanchez

6 D. Rojas

99 Ferreirinha

93 Willie

7 R. Cardozo

91 G. Álvarez

Coach · J. Grass

Substitutes

14 · Cristian Jhamil Urdininea Zambrana

28 · W. Soleto

8 · José Bermang Gutiérrez Adomeit

39 · P. Grass

16 · Santiago Chavez Suarez

15 · J. Bejarano

1 · J. Gutiérrez

20 · A. Mercado

9 · Gean

68 · Juan David Morales Ruiz

5 · Luis Braihan Palma Escobar

4 · L. Rodríguez

ABB

4-1-4-1

25 J. Cuellar

75 D. Valda

55 Augusto Héctor Seimandi

22 S. Reyes

42 Z. La Fuente

30 A. Bejarano

24 J. Rojas

3 A. Chumacero

21 P. Vaca

17 Rodderyk Perozo

11 Felipe Fajardo Juan

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · B. Espinoza

5 · Sebastian Claure

19 · A. Camacho

9 · J. Briceño

40 · Andrés Guillermo

6 · Andrés Guillermo

77 · J. Minah

1 · A. Riascos

2 · J. Riascos

16 · M. Salazar

33 · F. Zamora

Our number · independiente petrolero winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

65% The market58%

Us65%

~~Market~~58%

We make Independiente Petrolero a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente Petrolero v ABB~~2.39 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 20~~11 v 14

~~The market · Independiente Petrolero win~~58% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Independiente Petrolero win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente Petrolero win	65%	58%	+7
Draw	19%	22%	−3
ABB win	16%	20%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Independiente Petrolero or draw	84%	80%	+4
Independiente Petrolero clean sheet	33%	–	–
ABB clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.7 3.1 1 7.0 8.4 4.4 2 8.6 9.3 5.2 3 6.8 7.4 4.1 4 4.1 4.4 2.4 5 2.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente Petrolero down, ABB across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,589 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente Petrolero at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). ABB away: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for Independiente Petrolero, 1.11 for ABB. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ABB 3–1 IND · IND 2–0 ABB · ABB 1–2 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 27 Aug

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO

WLLLLD3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

ABB

LWLLLL1–4 · 2–0 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17