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Gualberto Villarroel SJ v Guabirá

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

4–1Full time

Guabirá

Primera División · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 4–1 Guabirá GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gualberto Villarroel SJ win~~54%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.315

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gualberto Villarroel SJ win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gualberto Villarroel SJ was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
1′KICK-OFF Gualberto Villarroel SJ v Guabirá
4′Much as we predicted: Gualberto Villarroel SJ was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
5′Much as we predicted: Gualberto Villarroel SJ was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0–1 Guabirá
6′⚽ GOAL · 8' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0–1 Guabirá
8′Guabirá find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 31–23–46
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Gualberto Villarroel SJ win: 54% at kick-off, 31% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Guabirá win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Gualberto Villarroel SJ win 31%)
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Gualberto Villarroel SJ win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Gualberto Villarroel SJ win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Guabirá win 24%)
9′Guabirá ahead on 7′ through Gustavo Peredo. 1–1. 1–1 · 53–22–24
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–1 Guabirá · Gustavo Peredo
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Gualberto Villarroel SJ win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Gualberto Villarroel SJ win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Guabirá win 24%)
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Gualberto Villarroel SJ win: 54% at kick-off, 31% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Guabirá win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Gualberto Villarroel SJ win 31%)
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–1 Guabirá · Alex Caceres
11′Alex Caceres scores for Gualberto Villarroel SJ on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 53–23–24
19′Alex Caceres scores for Gualberto Villarroel SJ on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 51–25–24
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2–1 Guabirá · Alex Caceres
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2–1 Guabirá · Alex Caceres
45′SECOND HALF Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3–1 Guabirá
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3–1 Guabirá · Matheus Moresche (assist Alex Caceres)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Alex Caceres · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3–1 Guabirá · Alex Caceres
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3–1 Guabirá · Matheus Moresche
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 4–1 Guabirá · Matheus Moresche
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Gualberto Villarroel SJ 4–1 Guabirá · Alex Caceres
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Guabirá · On: P. Luján · Off: N. Masskooni
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Elmer José Quispe Frías · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Daniel Moisés Calero Salazar · Off: Ronaldo Monteiro
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guabirá · On: Denilso Fernandez Tokudome · Off: Rafinha
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Juan Carlos Parada · Guabirá
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Daniel Moisés Calero Salazar · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guabirá · On: Makerlo Tellez · Off: Gustavo Peredo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: sebastian valdez · Off: Elmer José Quispe Frías
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Rodrigo Asur Orihuela Rivero · Off: G. Vaca
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Roler Ferrufino · Off: Matheus Moresche
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Luis Zeballos · Off: Alex Caceres
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Gualberto Villarroel SJ
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Daniel Moisés Calero Salazar · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Makerlo Tellez · Guabirá
FTFULL TIME Gualberto Villarroel SJ 4–1 Guabirá
FTGualberto Villarroel SJ 4–1 Guabirá · Gualberto Villarroel SJ win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Gualberto Villarroel SJ win54%

Draw22%

Guabirá win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

RefereeR. Vera

Line-ups

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

4-2-3-1

Guabirá

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Guabirá

24Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

4-2-3-1

25 R. Rivas

17 E. Quispe

26 J. Lencinas

20 F. Aguilar

4 G. Vaca

2 J. Ramallo

38 L. Vargas

55 J. Goyeneche

11 Matheus Moresche

7 A. Caceres

9 R. Monteiro

Coach · Artur Costa

Substitutes

66 · D. Akologo

36 · G. Justiniano

29 · S. Galindo

8 · R. Orihuela

21 · S. Valdez

37 · L. R. Cruz Valverde

10 · R. Ferrufino

14 · D. Calero

30 · L. Zeballos

18 · S. Pinto

Guabirá

3-4-3

13 J. Arauz

6 C. Anez

2 J. Barro

27 R. Corrales

8 A. Moreno

37 T. Chavez

77 Thiago Ribeiro

29 N. Masskooni

7 G. Peredo

15 Rafinha

11 S. Garzon

Coach · Leonardo Eguez

Substitutes

25 · R. D. Coronado Corcuy

33 · D. Fernandez

22 · M. Tellez

14 · J. Parada

40 · P. Lujan

28 · Y. Baigorria

4 · A. Ruiz

17 · M. Maciel

91 · V. Abrego

35 · D. Da Silva

Our number · gualberto villarroel sj winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

54% The market53%

Us54%

~~Market~~53%

We make Gualberto Villarroel SJ a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gualberto villarroel sj win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gualberto Villarroel SJ win	54%	53%	+1
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Guabirá win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	63%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	+1
Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw	76%	77%	−1
Gualberto Villarroel SJ clean sheet	27%	–	–
Guabirá clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.0 3.9 3.0 1 6.4 9.6 6.0 2.7 2 7.1 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 5.0 6.4 4.2 4 2.6 3.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gualberto Villarroel SJ down, Guabirá across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,579 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guabirá away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, 1.33 for Guabirá. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GUA 3–0 GUA · GUA 2–1 GUA · GUA 4–1 GUA · GUA 5–0 GUA

Form · last six in Primera División

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ

LDDLLL0–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–4

GUABIRÁ

WDLDLW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	21	+33	48
2	Always Ready	20	+34	45
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	21	+14	35
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
9	Blooming	21	+7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	21	−15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14