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Guabirá v Oriente Petrolero

Guabirá

1–1Full time

Oriente Petrolero

Primera División · MON 19 OCT · Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:00

Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero GUABIRÁ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Guabirá win~~49%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.923

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 47 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guabirá win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guabirá 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
1′KICK-OFF Guabirá v Oriente Petrolero
13′We said Guabirá at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–22–53
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Guabirá 0–1 Oriente Petrolero
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Oriente Petrolero win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Guabirá win 26%)
15′Oriente Petrolero ahead on 14′ through Mizael Sadoque Pinto Monteiro. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–22–53
18′We said Guabirá at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–22–53
21′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Guabirá · On: A. Moreno · Off: Thiago Ribeiro
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 21–23–56
35′We said Guabirá at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' S. Gil · Guabirá
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 43% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Guabirá win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Oriente Petrolero win 27%)
37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Guabirá
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Oriente Petrolero win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Guabirá win 19%)
41′Oriente Petrolero have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 41–32–27
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Guabirá win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Oriente Petrolero win 27%)
44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Guabirá
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 16% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Oriente Petrolero win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Guabirá win 16%)
45′SECOND HALF Guabirá 0–1 Oriente Petrolero
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Guabirá · On: Denilso Fernandez Tokudome · Off: S. Gil
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Guabirá · On: Pablo Andres Melgar Valverde · Off: Thiago Chavez
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' José Flores · Oriente Petrolero
49′We said Guabirá at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
49′HALF-TIME Guabirá 0–1 Oriente Petrolero
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' J. Barro · Guabirá
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 38% now
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Guabirá
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 13% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Guabirá · On: Makerlo Tellez · Off: Victor Abrego
61′We said Guabirá at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Marco Fernando Velasco Pena · Oriente Petrolero
66′We said Guabirá at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Guabirá 0–2 Oriente Petrolero
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Oriente Petrolero
68′67′: José Flores on the scoresheet for Oriente Petrolero. 0–1 · 6–23–71
69′66′: José Flores on the scoresheet for Oriente Petrolero. 0–1 · 6–22–72
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Carlos Anez · Guabirá
72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Guabirá
74′Guabirá are down to ten from 72′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–20–76
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oriente Petrolero · On: Fran Lopez · Off: Omar Siles
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oriente Petrolero · On: Joffre·Escobar · Off: Jorge Eduardo Lovera
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Guabirá · On: Milton Maciel · Off: Rafinha
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Oriente Petrolero win 14%)
79′Milton Maciel scores for Guabirá on 78′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–68–13
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' A. Torrez · Oriente Petrolero
84′14 shots for Oriente Petrolero, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 11–80–8
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Guabirá win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Oriente Petrolero · On: Carlos Enrique Saucedo Céspedes · Off: José Flores
95′Oriente Petrolero have had 17 attempts to 12 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–96–2
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Gustavo Peredo · Guabirá
96′1–1 at the end. Our 49% on Guabirá misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero
FTGuabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero · Guabirá win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guabirá are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guabirá 49%, draw 22%, Oriente Petrolero 28%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Guabirá v Oriente PetroleroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Guabirá win49%

Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero win28%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:30

RoundApertura · matchday 22

VenueEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Line-ups

Guabirá

4-2-3-1

Oriente Petrolero

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guabirá

Oriente Petrolero

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Guabirá

4-2-3-1

13 J. Arauz

97 S. Gil

6 C. Anez

2 J. Barro

29 N. Masskooni

37 T. Chavez

77 Thiago Ribeiro

7 G. Peredo

15 Rafinha

91 V. Abrego

11 S. Garzon

Coach · Leonardo Eguez

Substitutes

25 · R. D. Coronado Corcuy

27 · R. Corrales

19 · J. Flores

8 · A. Moreno

33 · D. Fernandez

22 · M. Tellez

14 · J. Parada

28 · Y. Baigorria

16 · Pablo Melgar

17 · M. Maciel

9 · F. Alarcon

35 · D. Da Silva

Oriente Petrolero

4-3-3

1 A. W. Torrez Suarez

24 M. Velasco

3 Mizael Monteiro

28 J. Velasco

6 D. Rodriguez

77 J. Herrera

20 J. Lovera

7 J. Flores

11 L. Vaca

8 O. Siles

91 N. Nacif

Coach · Gustavo Florentin

Substitutes

13 · J. Bernal

42 · D. Roca

4 · M. Bonilla

27 · F. Sosa Loppacher

44 · F. Lopez

18 · B. Mamani

23 · J. Rojas

29 · J. Escobar

33 · C. Saucedo

19 · F. Perez

21 · M. Aponte

35 · J. Vaca

Our number · guabirá winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

49% The market39%

Us49%

~~Market~~39%

We make Guabirá a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guabirá v Oriente Petrolero~~1.99 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 33~~7 v 5

~~The market · Guabirá win~~39% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guabirá win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guabirá win	49%	39%	+10
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Oriente Petrolero win	28%	35%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	66%	67%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Guabirá or draw	72%	65%	+7
Guabirá clean sheet	23%	–	–
Oriente Petrolero clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 4.3 3.5 1 5.9 9.6 6.7 3.3 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 4.1 5.9 4.3 2.1 4 2.1 3.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guabirá down, Oriente Petrolero across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,587 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 174 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guabirá at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Oriente Petrolero away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Guabirá, 1.48 for Oriente Petrolero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GUA 2–1 ORI · ORI 1–0 GUA · ORI 2–2 GUA · ORI 4–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

GUABIRÁ

DLDLWL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 3–1 · 1–4

ORIENTE PETROLERO

WDLLWW4–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17