Bolívar v Universitario de Vinto prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BolívarDrawUniversitario de Vinto

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bolívar 87%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bolívar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bolívar 87%, draw 9%, Universitario de Vinto 4%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bolívar v Universitario de VintoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bolívar win87%

Draw9%

Universitario de Vinto win4%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 23

VenueEstadio Hernando Siles

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bolívar

Universitario de Vinto

6Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bolívar winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

87% The market–

Us87%

We make Bolívar an 87% chance to win. The model expects 3.4–0.7, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bolívar v Universitario de Vinto~~3.40 – 0.66

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 51 v 21~~1 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bolívar win	87%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
Universitario de Vinto win	4%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Bolívar or draw	96%	–	–
Bolívar clean sheet	52%	–	–
Universitario de Vinto clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 11.1%

0123450 2.2 1 6.0 4.3 2 10.0 6.5 2.2 3 11.1 7.2 2.4 4 9.3 6.0 5 6.4 4.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Bolívar down, Universitario de Vinto across0–5 goals a side shown (86.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,592 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bolívar at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Universitario de Vinto away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.40 goals for Bolívar, 0.66 for Universitario de Vinto. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 3–2 BOL · BOL 3–0 UNI · UNI 1–1 BOL · BOL 3–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 25 Aug

BOLÍVAR

WWWWWW4–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO

WLWDLW2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	23	+14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	−8	29
9	Blooming	23	+6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
11	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	−19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	−13	20
15	ABB	23	−18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20