Bolívar v Blooming prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Bolívar 1–0 Blooming BOLÍVAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bolívar win~~79%

~~The market said~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.067

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.028

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bolívar win at 79%.
1′KICK-OFF Bolívar v Blooming
2′Little has changed for our model: Bolívar 79% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–13–8
3′Little has changed for our model: Bolívar 79% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–13–8
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Bolívar 1–0 Blooming
9′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bolívar 1–0 Blooming
21′10′ and it is 1–0: Dairon Asprilla on the scoresheet for Bolívar. 1–0 · 91–7–2
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 91% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 79% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 91% now
23′10′ and it is 1–0: Dairon Asprilla on the scoresheet for Bolívar. 1–0 · 91–7–2
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 79% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 91% now
31′We said Bolívar at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
32′We said Bolívar at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 90% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Bolívar win: 79% at kick-off, 90% now
45′SECOND HALF Bolívar 1–0 Blooming
46′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bolívar 1–0 Blooming · Dairon Asprilla (assist Robson Matheus)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Richard Spenhay · Blooming
57′🟨 YELLOW · 58' José Sagredo · Bolívar
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Blooming · On: Miguel Angel Villarroel Tardio · Off: Moisés Villarroel Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bolívar · On: dorny romero · Off: Martín Cauteruccio Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' dorny romero · Bolívar
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Guilmar Centella Bazan · Blooming
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Julio Demian Vila · Blooming
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Blooming · On: Roberto Carlos Melgar Simoes · Off: Guilmar Centella Bazan Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Blooming · On: Gerardo Cuasace Osinaga · Off: Federico Ramos Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Blooming · On: Auli Oliveros · Off: Roberto Hinojosa Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bolívar · On: anderson ayhuana · Off: Ervin vaca Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bolívar · On: Carlos Melgar · Off: Robson Matheus Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Leonel Justiniano · Bolívar
92′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Bolívar · On: Jesus Manuel Sagredo · Off: Jhon velasquez Corrected
FTFULL TIME Bolívar 1–0 Blooming
FTBolívar 1–0 Blooming · Bolívar win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bolívar win79%

Draw13%

Blooming win7%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:30

VenueEstadio Hernando Siles

Line-ups

Bolívar

4-4-2

Blooming

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bolívar

Blooming

23Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bolívar	20	+32	45
8	Blooming	20	+8	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bolívar

4-4-2

1 C. Lampe

8 L. Paz

33 F. Mena

3 X. Arreaga

4 J. Sagredo

14 Robson Matheus

6 E. Vaca Moreno

23 L. Justiniano

7 J. Velasquez

27 D. Asprilla

9 M. Cauteruccio

Coach · Alejandro Restrepo

Substitutes

12 · J. Lopez

80 · C. A. Melgar

5 · S. Echeverria

35 · E. Freita

2 · J. Sagredo

19 · J. Garcia

26 · E. Saavedra

22 · A. Ayhuana

11 · B. Miranda

10 · B. Arce

77 · D. Romero

18 · L. L. Chavez Cruz

Blooming

4-2-3-1

71 G. Almada

18 J. Gonzales

44 M. Enoumba

22 J. Vila

24 E. Justiniano

19 M. Abisab

6 R. Spenhay

88 G. Centella

8 M. Villarroel

10 R. Hinojosa

29 J. Garces

Coach · Cristian Paulucci

Substitutes

1 · B. Uraezana

14 · J. S. Mercado Galvez

28 · E. Alvarez

55 · J. Carrasco

33 · A. Oliveros

7 · M. Villarroel

77 · S. Espinoza

2 · M. Cabral

4 · D. Duran

25 · R. Melgar

79 · G. Cuasace

Our number · bolívar winPublished 12 Oct 00:30

79% The market87%

Us79%

~~Market~~87%

We make Bolívar a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 84% to 87% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bolívar win	79%	87%	−8
Draw	13%	9%	+4
Blooming win	7%	4%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	72%	78%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	45%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	89%	90%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	51%	61%	−10
Bolívar or draw	93%	96%	−4
Bolívar clean sheet	44%	–	–
Blooming clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 2.9 1 6.7 6.1 2.4 2 10.1 8.1 3.3 3 9.7 7.8 3.2 4 7.1 5.7 2.3 5 4.3 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Bolívar down, Blooming across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,576 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 12 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bolívar at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Blooming away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.94 goals for Bolívar, 0.82 for Blooming. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 15

~~Both scored~~6 of 15

~~Last meetings~~BLO 0–0 BOL · BLO 1–2 BOL · BOL 5–1 BLO · BOL 0–0 BLO

Form · last six in Primera División

BOLÍVAR

WWWWWW4–1 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2

BLOOMING

WDDLWD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 6–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	+34	45
2	Bolívar	20	+32	45
3	The Strongest	20	+17	42
4	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
5	Real Potosí	20	+13	32
6	Aurora	20	+4	30
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Blooming	20	+8	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	+2	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	21	−15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14