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Model 1.2

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Blooming v Independiente Petrolero

Blooming
0–0Full time
Independiente Petrolero

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01
Blooming 0–0 Independiente Petrolero BLOOMING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Blooming win56%
The market said69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.956
The market’s Brier score1.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Blooming win at 56%.
  2. 3′Much as we predicted: Blooming was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
  3. 3′KICK-OFF Blooming v Independiente Petrolero
  4. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' juan gonzales · Blooming
  5. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Blooming win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
  6. 41′Blooming have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 46–34–20
  7. 45′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–20
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Blooming 0–0 Independiente Petrolero
  9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Blooming · On: Gerardo Cuasace Osinaga · Off: juan gonzales
  10. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Blooming · On: José María Carrasco · Off: Bayron Garcés
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Blooming 0–0 Independiente Petrolero
  12. 57′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–43–19
  13. 57′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 38–43–19
  14. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Blooming · On: Cesar Menacho · Off: Moisés Villarroel
  15. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Blooming win 38%)
  16. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Blooming win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  17. 64′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
  18. 64′Blooming have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–49–17
  19. 67′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Cesar Menacho · Blooming
  20. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Independiente Petrolero · On: Alan Mercado · Off: Gustavo Cristaldo
  21. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Independiente Petrolero · On: Lucas Sánchez · Off: Santiago Chavez Suarez
  22. 70′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
  23. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Blooming win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
  24. 78′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–0 · 20–69–11
  25. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lucas Sánchez · Independiente Petrolero
  26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Blooming · On: Roberto Carlos Melgar Simoes · Off: Guilmar Centella Bazan
  27. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Blooming · On: Miguel Angel Villarroel Tardio · Off: Roberto Hinojosa
  28. 79′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Independiente Petrolero · On: Rudy Cardozo · Off: Willie
  30. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Blooming win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
  31. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Independiente Petrolero · On: Gean Carlos Morais Almeida · Off: Gilbert Alvarez
  32. 82′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  33. 89′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–89–4
  34. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Independiente Petrolero · On: Joel Bejarano Azogue · Off: Jefferson Carioca
  35. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Blooming win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
  36. 92′We said Blooming at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  37. FTFULL TIME Blooming 0–0 Independiente Petrolero
  38. FTBlooming 0–0 Independiente Petrolero · Blooming win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Blooming are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Blooming 56%, draw 23%, Independiente Petrolero 21%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Blooming v Independiente PetroleroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Blooming win56%
Draw23%
Independiente Petrolero win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:30

RoundApertura · matchday 22

VenueEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Line-ups

Blooming

4-2-3-1

Independiente Petrolero

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Blooming

Independiente Petrolero

6Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Blooming21+727
10Independiente Petrolero21−1025

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Blooming

4-2-3-1

71 G. Almada

18 J. Gonzales

44 M. Enoumba

22 J. Vila

24 E. Justiniano

19 M. Abisab

6 R. Spenhay

8 M. Villarroel

10 R. Hinojosa

88 G. Centella

29 J. Garces

Coach · Cristian Paulucci

Substitutes

1 · B. Uraezana

28 · E. Alvarez

55 · J. Carrasco

33 · A. Oliveros

82 · J. Miranda

7 · M. Villarroel

2 · M. Cabral

11 · C. Menacho

4 · D. Duran

25 · R. Melgar

79 · G. Cuasace

Independiente Petrolero

4-2-3-1

12 J. Vera

2 S. Torres

50 Roni Santos

3 L. Crescencio

34 G. Mendoza

16 S. Chavez Suarez

6 D. Rojas

19 G. Cristaldo

93 Willie

99 Jeferson Carioca

91 G. Alvarez

Coach · Leitao Thiago

Substitutes

40 · L. Morales

20 · A. Mercado

15 · J. Bejarano

28 · W. Soleto

5 · L. Palma

4 · L. Rodriguez

26 · K. Sanchez

7 · R. Cardozo

39 · P. Grass

68 · D. Morales

9 · Gean

Our number · blooming winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
56% The market69%
Us56%
Market69%

We make Blooming a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Blooming v Independiente Petrolero1.94 – 1.10
Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 AugW1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 27 v 259 v 10
The market · Blooming win69% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0018 OCT 00:15
Our probability · Blooming win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Blooming win56%69%−13
Draw23%19%+4
Independiente Petrolero win21%13%+8
Over 2.5 goals58%65%−7
Both teams to score57%57%0
Over 1.5 goals81%84%−3
Over 3.5 goals36%46%−10
Blooming or draw79%87%−8
Blooming clean sheet34%––
Independiente Petrolero clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 5.5 4.9 2.9 1 8.9 10.6 5.5 2.1 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 5.8 6.3 3.4 4 2.9 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Blooming down, Independiente Petrolero across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting4.10
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsBLO 0–1 IND · IND 5–2 BLO · IND 3–1 BLO · IND 1–5 BLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

BLOOMING

DDLWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 6–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO

LWLLLL0–3 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Always Ready21+3648
2Bolívar21+3348
3The Strongest21+1642
4Real Potosí22+1538
5Oriente Petrolero21+1033
6Aurora21+431
7Guabirá21−1029
8Nacional Potosí21+228
9Blooming21+727
10Independiente Petrolero21−1025
11Real Oruro21−1624
12San Antonio Bulo Bulo21−1921
13ABB22−1620
14Real Tomayapo22−2320
15Universitario de Vinto21−1518
16Gualberto Villarroel SJ22−1417

The competition's standings before kick-off.