Aurora v Real Tomayapo prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AuroraDrawReal Tomayapo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Aurora 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aurora are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aurora 62%, draw 22%, Real Tomayapo 16%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Aurora v Real TomayapoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aurora win62%

Draw22%

Real Tomayapo win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:15

RoundApertura · matchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aurora

Real Tomayapo

5Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aurora winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Aurora a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aurora v Real Tomayapo~~1.95 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 20~~6 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aurora win	62%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Real Tomayapo win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Aurora or draw	84%	–	–
Aurora clean sheet	42%	–	–
Real Tomayapo clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%

0123450 6.8 4.8 2.3 1 11.2 10.5 4.4 2 11.2 9.6 4.2 3 7.3 6.2 2.7 4 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aurora down, Real Tomayapo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,590 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.5% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aurora at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Tomayapo away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Aurora, 0.87 for Real Tomayapo. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 0–2 AUR · AUR 1–2 REA · REA 0–0 AUR · REA 2–1 AUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 26 Aug

AURORA

DWWLDL2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

REAL TOMAYAPO

WLLLDW1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17