Aurora v Nacional Potosí prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

Aurora 2–2 Nacional Potosí AURORA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aurora win~~50%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aurora win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aurora was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Aurora v Nacional Potosí
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Aurora 1–0 Nacional Potosí
15′⚽ GOAL · 16' Aurora 1–0 Nacional Potosí · Alan Miguel Terrazas Castro
21′Alan Miguel Terrazas Castro scores for Aurora on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' P. Azogue · Nacional Potosí
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Aurora 1–1 Nacional Potosí · Alan Miguel Terrazas Castro
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Aurora 1–1 Nacional Potosí · Wilson Álvarez
45′SECOND HALF Aurora 1–2 Nacional Potosí
46′⚽ GOAL · 56' Aurora 1–2 Nacional Potosí · M. Tomianovic
46′🟨 YELLOW · 59' leandro barro · Aurora
53′PENALTY · 54' Nacional Potosí
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Aurora 1–2 Nacional Potosí · P. Azogue
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Aurora 1–2 Nacional Potosí · M. Tomianovic
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' leandro barro · Aurora
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Aurora · On: Henry Vaca · Off: Alan Miguel Terrazas Castro
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nacional Potosí · On: Weslen Junior · Off: Schneider Peña Vaca
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Aurora 2–2 Nacional Potosí · M. Tomianovic
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Aurora 2–2 Nacional Potosí · Rodrigo Ramallo
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Weslen Junior · Nacional Potosí
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Óscar Damián Villalba · Nacional Potosí
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Harrison Mojica · Aurora
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Jair Torrico · Aurora
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Nacional Potosí · On: Oscar Baldomar · Off: D. Hoyos
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Nacional Potosí · On: Tommy Tobar · Off: Weslen Junior
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nacional Potosí · On: juan orellana · Off: Maximiliano Núñez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nacional Potosí · On: Juan Batista · Off: M. Tomianovic
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Aurora · On: Moisés Eduardo Velazco Gomez · Off: Harrison Mojica
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Juan Batista · Nacional Potosí
FTFULL TIME Aurora 2–2 Nacional Potosí
FTAurora 2–2 Nacional Potosí · Aurora win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aurora win50%

Draw24%

Nacional Potosí win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:15

VenueFelix Capriles

Line-ups

Aurora

4-1-4-1

Nacional Potosí

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aurora

Nacional Potosí

25Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aurora	20	+4	30
9	Nacional Potosí	20	+2	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aurora

4-1-4-1

12 R. Cordano

16 L. Barro

23 I. Huayhuata

22 J. Velazquez

70 J. Torrico

5 A. Amarilla

69 A. Terrazas

14 H. Sanchez

10 R. Ramallo

8 L. Viviani

9 M. Rangel

Coach · David Diaz

Substitutes

1 · J. Terrazas

32 · S. Altamirano

11 · H. Mojica

19 · E. Sanchez

7 · H. Vaca

21 · M. Ortiz

25 · A. Rios

4 · I. Vidaurre

20 · A. Pacheco

18 · S. Ferreira

26 · D. Villca

90 · M. Velazco

Nacional Potosí

4-4-2

23 P. Galindo

34 K. Medina

5 S. Alvarez

33 L. Demiquel

16 A. Torrico

10 M. Nunez

18 P. Azogue

22 D. Hoyos

28 S. Pena

19 W. Alvarez

11 M. Tomianovic

Coach · Dailer Gutierrez

Substitutes

1 · E. Arauz

2 · R. Avila

21 · O. Baldomar

25 · J. Orellana

14 · Juan Batista

27 · C. Abastoflor

30 · Y. Martinez

9 · T. Tobar

29 · Weslen Junior

7 · M. Solis

99 · D. Villalba

15 · J. Arce Pari

Our number · aurora winPublished 11 Oct 22:08

50% The market54%

Us50%

~~Market~~54%

We make Aurora a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aurora win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. The market has gone from 56% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aurora win	50%	54%	−4
Draw	24%	24%	0
Nacional Potosí win	25%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Aurora or draw	75%	78%	−4
Aurora clean sheet	29%	–	–
Nacional Potosí clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 5.1 3.6 1 7.7 11.0 6.4 2.7 2 7.7 9.4 5.8 2.5 3 4.7 5.8 3.6 4 2.2 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aurora down, Nacional Potosí across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,576 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.73 goals a meeting; 8 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aurora at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nacional Potosí away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Aurora, 1.25 for Nacional Potosí. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 21:47. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.73

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 15

~~Both scored~~9 of 15

~~Last meetings~~NAC 2–0 AUR · AUR 1–2 NAC · NAC 3–1 AUR · AUR 1–1 NAC

Form · last six in Primera División

AURORA

LDDWWL0–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–3

NACIONAL POTOSÍ

WWLWWL2–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	+34	45
2	Bolívar	20	+32	45
3	The Strongest	20	+17	42
4	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
5	Real Potosí	20	+13	32
6	Aurora	20	+4	30
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Blooming	20	+8	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	+2	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	21	−15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14