Always Ready v Independiente Petrolero prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 01:00

Always Ready 2–0 Independiente Petrolero ALWAYS READY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Always Ready win~~82%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.051

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.063

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Always Ready win at 82%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Always Ready 82% before kick-off, 83% now. 0–0 · 83–11–6
1′KICK-OFF Always Ready v Independiente Petrolero
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Always Ready 1–0 Independiente Petrolero
24′A. Quiroga scores for Always Ready on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Always Ready 1–0 Independiente Petrolero
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Always Ready win: 82% at kick-off, 92% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Alan Mercado · Independiente Petrolero
45′SECOND HALF Always Ready 1–0 Independiente Petrolero
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Always Ready · On: galindo nicolas · Off: Carlos Medina
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Independiente Petrolero · On: Willie · Off: Alan Mercado
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Independiente Petrolero · On: Joel Bejarano Azogue · Off: C. Urdininea
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Always Ready 2–0 Independiente Petrolero · A. Quiroga
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Always Ready 2–0 Independiente Petrolero · Enrique Triverio
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' A. Quiroga · Always Ready
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Always Ready · On: Dario Torrico · Off: Rai Pablo Lima Martínez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Always Ready · On: Carmelo Algarañaz · Off: J.Uzeda
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Independiente Petrolero · On: Jefferson Carioca · Off: Gustavo Cristaldo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Independiente Petrolero · On: Gilbert Alvarez · Off: Gean Carlos Morais Almeida
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Ronivan Bispo Dos Santos · Independiente Petrolero
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' G. Mendoza · Independiente Petrolero
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Always Ready · On: Ramon Rodrigo de Carvalho · Off: Joel Amoroso
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Always Ready · On: Juan Godoy · Off: Enrique Triverio
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Independiente Petrolero · On: Lucas Sánchez · Off: Santiago Chavez Suarez
FTFULL TIME Always Ready 2–0 Independiente Petrolero
FTAlways Ready 2–0 Independiente Petrolero · Always Ready win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 21:52 · locked at kick-off

Always Ready win82%

Draw12%

Independiente Petrolero win6%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 22:15

VenueEstadio Municipal de El Alto

RefereeI. N. Mendez Chavez

Line-ups

Always Ready

4-2-3-1

Independiente Petrolero

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Always Ready

Independiente Petrolero

26Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Always Ready	20	+34	45
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Always Ready

4-2-3-1

1 A. Baroja

18 C. Rodriguez

22 R. Gomez Miranda

26 E. Restrepo

14 C. D. Medina Rodriguez

5 A. Quiroga

6 R. Lima

7 J. Amoroso

11 J. Uzeda

10 J. Maraude

9 E. Triverio

Coach · Pablo Godoy

Substitutes

12 · S. Mustafa

21 · A. Rambal

4 · N. Villarroel

36 · K. Estrada

27 · J. Ojeda

19 · D. Torrico

2 · J. Herrera

23 · J. Godoy

29 · Ramon

28 · H. Galvis

24 · C. Algaranaz

33 · C. M. Collazo Martinez

Independiente Petrolero

4-4-2

12 J. Vera

2 S. Torres

50 Roni Santos

3 L. Crescencio

34 G. Mendoza

19 G. Cristaldo

14 C. Urdininea

6 D. Rojas

16 S. Chavez Suarez

20 A. Mercado

9 Gean

Coach · Leitao Thiago

Substitutes

40 · L. Morales

15 · J. Bejarano

28 · W. Soleto

5 · L. Palma

93 · Willie

26 · K. Sanchez

7 · R. Cardozo

91 · G. Alvarez

68 · D. Morales

99 · Jeferson Carioca

Our number · always ready winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 21:52 · locked at kick-off

82% The market80%

Us82%

~~Market~~80%

We make Always Ready a 82% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 3.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · always ready win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 86% to 80% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Always Ready win	82%	80%	+2
Draw	12%	13%	−1
Independiente Petrolero win	6%	8%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Always Ready or draw	94%	92%	+1
Always Ready clean sheet	44%	–	–
Independiente Petrolero clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.5%

0123450 2.3 1 5.7 5.3 2.1 2 9.2 7.5 3.1 3 9.5 7.7 3.2 4 7.5 6.1 2.5 5 4.9 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Always Ready down, Independiente Petrolero across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,579 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.36 goals a meeting; 8 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Always Ready at home: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente Petrolero away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.18 goals for Always Ready, 0.82 for Independiente Petrolero. Most likely score 3–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 21:52. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.36

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 14

~~Both scored~~10 of 14

~~Last meetings~~IND 0–0 ALW · IND 5–2 ALW · ALW 5–0 IND · IND 3–7 ALW

Form · last six in Primera División

ALWAYS READY

DDDWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 6–0 · 4–0

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO

WLWLLL1–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	21	+33	48
2	Always Ready	20	+34	45
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	21	+14	35
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
9	Blooming	21	+7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	21	−15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14