ABB v Real Potosí prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

ABB 0–1 Real Potosí REAL POTOSÍ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Potosí win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Potosí win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Real Potosí was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–28–40
2′KICK-OFF ABB v Real Potosí
10′10′: Imanol Cárdenas on the scoresheet for Real Potosí, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–68
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' ABB 0–1 Real Potosí · Imanol Cárdenas
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Real Potosí win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
11′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Real Potosí win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Denilson Valda · ABB
25′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME ABB 0–1 Real Potosí
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45+3' Layonel Figueroa · ABB
46′A red card for ABB on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 6–20–73
46′SECOND HALF ABB 0–1 Real Potosí
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ABB · On: J. Briceno · Off: Jean Riascos
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ABB · On: B. Espinoza · Off: Gary Rea Mendieta
48′ABB are down to nine from 47′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 6–20–74
48′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Gary Rea Mendieta · ABB
51′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Real Potosí · On: Edgar Daniel Cuellar Montero · Off: Williams Wallas Fernandez Von Boeck
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Real Potosí win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
64′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ABB · On: R. Perozo · Off: Juan Felipe Fajardo Gallego
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Potosí · On: Jeferson Rivas Tirado · Off: Luis Alí
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Real Potosí · On: J. Thomas · Off: Lucas Cristian Giménez Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Potosí · On: J. Thomas · Off: Imanol Cárdenas
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Alejandro Bejarano · ABB
74′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' ABB · On: Jairo Diego Rojas Montaño · Off: Adriel Guillermo
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Real Potosí win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Real Potosí · On: Renan Wilder Terrazas Soliz · Off: Hugo Rojas
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Real Potosí · On: Igor Soares · Off: Lucas Cristian Giménez
87′We published Real Potosí at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Omar Preciado · ABB
92′A third red card for ABB on 90′ — they are down to eight. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 0–2–98
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Omar Preciado · ABB
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Augusto Seimandi · ABB
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Real Potosí win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME ABB 0–1 Real Potosí
FTABB 0–1 Real Potosí · Real Potosí win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Potosí are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ABB 32%, draw 29%, Real Potosí 39%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on ABB v Real PotosíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

ABB win32%

Draw29%

Real Potosí win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00

RoundApertura · matchday 22

Line-ups

ABB

4-1-4-1

Real Potosí

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ABB

Real Potosí

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Potosí	21	+14	35
13	ABB	21	−15	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ABB

4-1-4-1

25 J. Cuellar

75 D. Valda

2 J. Riasco

55 A. Seimandi

37 O. Preciado

30 A. Bejarano

7 L. Figueroa

3 A. Chumacero

18 G. Rea Mendieta

40 A. Guillermo

11 J. F. Fajardo

Coach · Walter Flores

Substitutes

12 · S. Paz

14 · C. Jemio

42 · Z. La Fuente

21 · P. Vaca

19 · A. Camacho

17 · R. Perozo

5 · S. Claure

16 · M. Salazar

6 · A. Guillermo

9 · J. Briceno

31 · B. Espinoza

24 · J. Rojas

Real Potosí

5-4-1

1 C. Martinez

21 W. Fernandez

22 F. Supayabe

4 K. Villegas

44 S. Severiche

19 A. Brito

77 J. Rojas

8 I. Cardenas

90 L. Gimenez

12 B. Condori

23 L. Ali

Coach · Jhon Garcia

Substitutes

25 · D. Sandy

10 · V. Castellon

14 · E. Velasquez

41 · Igor Soares

6 · J. Thomas

31 · R. Terrazas

11 · M. Gomez

30 · J. Alipaz

18 · J. Rivas

91 · S. Plaza

17 · D. Cuellar

Our number · real potosí winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Real Potosí a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ABB v Real Potosí~~1.14 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 35~~13 v 4

~~The market · Real Potosí win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Potosí win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ABB win	32%	32%	0
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Real Potosí win	39%	41%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	57%	−14
Both teams to score	49%	60%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	70%	79%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	23%	36%	−13
ABB or draw	61%	59%	+2
ABB clean sheet	28%	–	–
Real Potosí clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.1 10.7 7.3 3.2 1 9.4 13.4 8.1 3.5 2 5.8 7.2 4.6 2.0 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ABB down, Real Potosí across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,581 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ABB at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Potosí away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for ABB, 1.28 for Real Potosí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~REA 3–1 ABB · ABB 2–3 REA · REA 3–1 ABB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

ABB

DLWLLL2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 0–1

REAL POTOSÍ

DLDWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	21	+14	35
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
9	Blooming	21	+7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	−10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	21	−15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	21	−13	17
16	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17