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Unión Tarija v Independiente CBBA

Unión Tarija

1–0Full time

Independiente CBBA

Nacional B · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Unión Tarija 1–0 Independiente CBBA UNIÓN TARIJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Unión Tarija win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unión Tarija win at 54%.
2′Much as we predicted: Unión Tarija was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
45′We published Unión Tarija at 54%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
61′We published Unión Tarija at 54%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
69′We published Unión Tarija at 54%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
81′We published Unión Tarija at 54%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Unión Tarija win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
FTFULL TIME Unión Tarija 1–0 Independiente CBBA
FTUnión Tarija 1–0 Independiente CBBA · Unión Tarija win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Unión Tarija win54%

Draw21%

Independiente CBBA win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Unión Tarija

Independiente CBBA

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
14	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión tarija winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Unión Tarija a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Tarija win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Independiente CBBA win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Unión Tarija or draw	76%	–	–
Unión Tarija clean sheet	34%	–	–
Independiente CBBA clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%

0123450 5.2 7.2 3.4 1 10.9 9.6 5.7 2.2 2 8.7 9.1 5.0 3 5.3 5.6 3.1 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Tarija down, Independiente CBBA across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 577 Nacional B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Unión Tarija at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente CBBA away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Unión Tarija, 1.10 for Independiente CBBA. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Nacional B

UNIÓN TARIJA

WLLWLW2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

INDEPENDIENTE CBBA

WWWLWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	26 de Febrero	7	+7	15
2	Virginia	7	+7	15
3	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
4	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
5	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
6	Deportivo FATIC	7	+7	13
7	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
8	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
9	Wilstermann Cooperativa	7	+3	11
10	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
11	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
12	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
13	Chaco	6	+4	9
14	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
15	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
16	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
17	Club Universitario	6	0	8
18	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
19	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
20	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
21	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
22	Libertad	6	−22	1
23	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
24	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0