San Martin de Yacuiba v Municipal Tiquipaya prediction · Nacional B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:30

San Martin de Yacuiba 4–0 Municipal Tiquipaya MUNICIPAL TIQUIPAYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Municipal Tiquipaya win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

San Martin de Yacuiba win34%

Draw22%

Municipal Tiquipaya win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

San Martin de Yacuiba

Municipal Tiquipaya

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
15	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · municipal tiquipaya winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Municipal Tiquipaya a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martin de Yacuiba win	34%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Municipal Tiquipaya win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
San Martin de Yacuiba or draw	57%	–	–
San Martin de Yacuiba clean sheet	23%	–	–
Municipal Tiquipaya clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.6 10.3 6.9 3.7 1 8.9 10.2 8.2 4.2 2 5.1 7.2 5.3 2.7 3 2.4 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martin de Yacuiba down, Municipal Tiquipaya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 577 Nacional B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martin de Yacuiba at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Municipal Tiquipaya away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for San Martin de Yacuiba, 1.53 for Municipal Tiquipaya. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUN 5–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 MUN

Form · last six in Nacional B

SAN MARTIN DE YACUIBA

WWLLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 4–1

MUNICIPAL TIQUIPAYA

DLWWWD1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 6–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	26 de Febrero	7	+7	15
2	Virginia	7	+7	15
3	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
4	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
5	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
6	Deportivo FATIC	7	+7	13
7	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
8	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
9	Wilstermann Cooperativa	7	+3	11
10	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
11	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
12	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
13	Chaco	6	+4	9
14	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
15	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
16	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
17	Club Universitario	6	0	8
18	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
19	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
20	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
21	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
22	Libertad	6	−22	1
23	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
24	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0