Primero Mayo v Deportivo Tigres prediction · Nacional B

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 05:30

Primero Mayo 0–3 Deportivo Tigres PRIMERO MAYO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Primero Mayo win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.938

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Primero Mayo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Primero Mayo 54%, draw 23%, Deportivo Tigres 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Primero Mayo v Deportivo TigresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Primero Mayo win54%

Draw23%

Deportivo Tigres win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Primero Mayo

Deportivo Tigres

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · primero mayo winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Primero Mayo a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Primero Mayo v Deportivo Tigres~~1.64 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Primero Mayo win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Deportivo Tigres win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Primero Mayo or draw	77%	–	–
Primero Mayo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Deportivo Tigres clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 7.4 8.3 3.5 1 13.5 10.3 5.3 2 10.0 9.0 4.2 3 5.5 5.0 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Primero Mayo down, Deportivo Tigres across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 587 Nacional B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Primero Mayo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Tigres away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Primero Mayo, 0.94 for Deportivo Tigres. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–0 PRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug

PRIMERO MAYO

WWLWLD3–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

DEPORTIVO TIGRES

DDWWLD1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
4	Libertad	6	−22	1
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7