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Municipal Tiquipaya v San Martin de Yacuiba

Municipal Tiquipaya

3–3Full time

San Martin de Yacuiba

Nacional B · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

Municipal Tiquipaya 3–3 San Martin de Yacuiba MUNICIPAL TIQUIPAYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Municipal Tiquipaya win~~67%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.162

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.005

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Municipal Tiquipaya win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Municipal Tiquipaya was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–17–16
1′KICK-OFF Municipal Tiquipaya v San Martin de Yacuiba
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
39′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–29–16
41′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–16
45′HALF-TIME Municipal Tiquipaya 0–0 San Martin de Yacuiba
46′SECOND HALF Municipal Tiquipaya 0–0 San Martin de Yacuiba
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 52% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Municipal Tiquipaya win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Draw 33%)
50′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
55′We published Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Municipal Tiquipaya 1–0 San Martin de Yacuiba
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
75′We published Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–66–10
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Municipal Tiquipaya 1–1 San Martin de Yacuiba
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 25% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Municipal Tiquipaya win 25%)
78′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–67–9
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 24% now
81′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–74–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 17% now
84′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–81–5
86′We said Municipal Tiquipaya at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–11–89
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Municipal Tiquipaya 1–2 San Martin de Yacuiba
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Municipal Tiquipaya win: 67% at kick-off, 1% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' San Martin de Yacuiba win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 11%)
87′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 1–10–90
88′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Municipal Tiquipaya 1–3 San Martin de Yacuiba
95′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–2–98
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Municipal Tiquipaya 2–3 San Martin de Yacuiba
97′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 2–96–1
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Municipal Tiquipaya 3–3 San Martin de Yacuiba
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was San Martin de Yacuiba win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Municipal Tiquipaya 3–3 San Martin de Yacuiba
FTMunicipal Tiquipaya 3–3 San Martin de Yacuiba · Municipal Tiquipaya win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Municipal Tiquipaya are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Municipal Tiquipaya 67%, draw 17%, San Martin de Yacuiba 16%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Municipal Tiquipaya v San Martin de YacuibaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Municipal Tiquipaya win67%

Draw17%

San Martin de Yacuiba win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Municipal Tiquipaya

San Martin de Yacuiba

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · municipal tiquipaya winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

67% The market60%

Us67%

~~Market~~60%

We make Municipal Tiquipaya a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Municipal Tiquipaya v San Martin de Yacuiba~~2.29 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~2 v 4

~~The market · Municipal Tiquipaya win~~60% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Municipal Tiquipaya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Municipal Tiquipaya win	67%	60%	+7
Draw	17%	22%	−5
San Martin de Yacuiba win	16%	18%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Municipal Tiquipaya or draw	84%	82%	+2
Municipal Tiquipaya clean sheet	39%	–	–
San Martin de Yacuiba clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 3.7 4.7 1 9.9 7.7 4.0 2 10.0 9.1 4.4 3 7.5 6.9 3.3 4 4.4 4.0 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Municipal Tiquipaya down, San Martin de Yacuiba across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 587 Nacional B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Municipal Tiquipaya at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin de Yacuiba away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Municipal Tiquipaya, 0.96 for San Martin de Yacuiba. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAN 4–0 MUN · MUN 5–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 MUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 30 Aug

MUNICIPAL TIQUIPAYA

LWWWDL0–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

SAN MARTIN DE YACUIBA

WLLLWW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
4	Libertad	6	−22	1
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7