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Mineros Potosi v Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

Mineros Potosi

4–1Full time

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

Nacional B · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Mineros Potosi 4–1 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz MINEROS POTOSI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mineros Potosi win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mineros Potosi win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mineros Potosi was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
22′We published Mineros Potosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–16–10
45′We published Mineros Potosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
66′We published Mineros Potosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–0
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Mineros Potosi win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Mineros Potosi 4–1 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz
FTFULL TIME Mineros Potosi 4–1 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz
FTMineros Potosi 4–1 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz · Mineros Potosi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mineros Potosi win52%

Draw19%

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mineros Potosi

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
11	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mineros potosi winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Mineros Potosi a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mineros Potosi win	52%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Mineros Potosi or draw	72%	–	–
Mineros Potosi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.8 5.5 3.4 1 7.3 8.0 6.1 3.0 2 6.5 8.6 6.0 2.9 3 4.5 6.0 4.1 4 2.4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mineros Potosi down, Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 577 Nacional B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mineros Potosi at home: 4.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Mineros Potosi, 1.43 for Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Nacional B

MINEROS POTOSI

DLWWWL3–3 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 7–0 · 1–2

CIUDAD NUEVA SANTA CRUZ

LDWDWW2–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	26 de Febrero	7	+7	15
2	Virginia	7	+7	15
3	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
4	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
5	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
6	Deportivo FATIC	7	+7	13
7	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
8	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
9	Wilstermann Cooperativa	7	+3	11
10	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
11	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
12	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
13	Chaco	6	+4	9
14	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
15	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
16	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
17	Club Universitario	6	0	8
18	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
19	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
20	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
21	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
22	Libertad	6	−22	1
23	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
24	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0