Independiente CBBA v Unión Tarija prediction · Nacional B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Independiente CBBA 3–0 Unión Tarija INDEPENDIENTE CBBA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente CBBA win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.318

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente CBBA win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Independiente CBBA 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Independiente CBBA v Unión Tarija
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Independiente CBBA win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
43′We said Independiente CBBA at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–37–21
45′HALF-TIME Independiente CBBA 0–0 Unión Tarija
46′SECOND HALF Independiente CBBA 0–0 Unión Tarija
48′We said Independiente CBBA at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–4
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Independiente CBBA 1–0 Unión Tarija
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Independiente CBBA win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
49′We said Independiente CBBA at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
50′We said Independiente CBBA at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Independiente CBBA 2–0 Unión Tarija
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Independiente CBBA win: 54% at kick-off, 96% now
83′We said Independiente CBBA at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–82–7
83′Goalless on 83′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 12–82–7
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Independiente CBBA
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Independiente CBBA win: 54% at kick-off, 12% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Independiente CBBA win 12%)
86′We said Independiente CBBA at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Independiente CBBA 3–0 Unión Tarija
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Independiente CBBA win: 54% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Independiente CBBA win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw under 1%)
87′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′We said Independiente CBBA at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–88–5
FTFULL TIME Independiente CBBA 3–0 Unión Tarija
FTIndependiente CBBA 3–0 Unión Tarija · Independiente CBBA win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente CBBA are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente CBBA 54%, draw 22%, Unión Tarija 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Independiente CBBA v Unión TarijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 10:01 · locked at kick-off

Independiente CBBA win54%

Draw22%

Unión Tarija win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente CBBA

Unión Tarija

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente cbba winFirst published 16 Oct 10:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Independiente CBBA a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente CBBA v Unión Tarija~~1.71 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente CBBA win	54%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Unión Tarija win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Independiente CBBA or draw	76%	–	–
Independiente CBBA clean sheet	37%	–	–
Unión Tarija clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 7.7 3.5 1 12.0 10.1 5.5 2 9.3 9.1 4.6 3 5.4 5.3 2.7 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente CBBA down, Unión Tarija across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 584 Nacional B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente CBBA at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Unión Tarija away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Independiente CBBA, 1.02 for Unión Tarija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 30 Aug

INDEPENDIENTE CBBA

WWLWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

UNIÓN TARIJA

LLWLWW1–3 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7