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EM Huanuni v Atletico Sucre

EM Huanuni

1–3Full time

Atletico Sucre

Nacional B · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

EM Huanuni 1–3 Atletico Sucre EM HUANUNI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said EM Huanuni win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.385

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said EM Huanuni win at 76%.
1′KICK-OFF EM Huanuni v Atletico Sucre
2′Little has changed for our model: EM Huanuni 76% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 76–13–11
8′We said EM Huanuni at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–8–4
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' EM Huanuni 1–0 Atletico Sucre
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' EM Huanuni
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 74% now
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' EM Huanuni 1–0 Atletico Sucre
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' EM Huanuni
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 73% now
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' EM Huanuni 1–0 Atletico Sucre
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 87–9–3
44′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 62%. 0–0 · 62–25–13 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
45′HALF-TIME EM Huanuni 1–1 Atletico Sucre
46′SECOND HALF EM Huanuni 1–1 Atletico Sucre
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' EM Huanuni 1–1 Atletico Sucre
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 61% now
49′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–27–13
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 56% now
57′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
62′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–2 · 20–30–50
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' EM Huanuni 1–2 Atletico Sucre
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 20% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Atletico Sucre win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was EM Huanuni win 20%)
63′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–30–51
65′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–3 · 5–12–82
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' EM Huanuni 1–3 Atletico Sucre
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' EM Huanuni win: 76% at kick-off, 5% now
66′We said EM Huanuni at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–4 · 1–4–95
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' EM Huanuni 1–4 Atletico Sucre
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Atletico Sucre
FTFULL TIME EM Huanuni 1–3 Atletico Sucre
FTEM Huanuni 1–3 Atletico Sucre · EM Huanuni win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

EM Huanuni are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: EM Huanuni 76%, draw 12%, Atletico Sucre 11%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on EM Huanuni v Atletico SucreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

EM Huanuni win76%

Draw12%

Atletico Sucre win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EM Huanuni

Atletico Sucre

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · em huanuni winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make EM Huanuni a 76% chance to win. The model expects 3.1–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · EM Huanuni v Atletico Sucre~~3.11 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 9~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EM Huanuni win	76%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Atletico Sucre win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
EM Huanuni or draw	89%	–	–
EM Huanuni clean sheet	37%	–	–
Atletico Sucre clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 7.8%

0123450 2.6 1 6.1 5.1 2.9 2 7.8 7.7 4.0 3 7.5 7.3 3.8 4 5.7 5.5 2.8 5 3.7 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+EM Huanuni down, Atletico Sucre across0–5 goals a side shown (88.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 587 Nacional B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EM Huanuni at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Sucre away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

3.11 goals for EM Huanuni, 1.03 for Atletico Sucre. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–5 EMH · ATL 0–1 EMH · EMH 3–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug

EM HUANUNI

WDWWWW3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 5–1

ATLETICO SUCRE

LWLLWL2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
4	Libertad	6	−22	1
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7