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Deportivo FATIC v 26 de Febrero

Deportivo FATIC

1–0Full time

26 de Febrero

Nacional B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Deportivo FATIC 1–0 26 de Febrero DEPORTIVO FATIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportivo FATIC win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.224

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo FATIC win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo FATIC 61% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo FATIC v 26 de Febrero
9′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo FATIC 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo FATIC 0–0 26 de Febrero
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo FATIC 0–0 26 de Febrero
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Deportivo FATIC 1–0 26 de Febrero
FTFULL TIME Deportivo FATIC 1–0 26 de Febrero
FTDeportivo FATIC 1–0 26 de Febrero · Deportivo FATIC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo FATIC win61%

Draw19%

26 de Febrero win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo fatic winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Deportivo FATIC a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo FATIC win	61%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
26 de Febrero win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Deportivo FATIC or draw	80%	–	–
Deportivo FATIC clean sheet	35%	–	–
26 de Febrero clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 5.5 2.5 1 9.7 8.4 4.9 2 9.0 9.1 4.9 3 6.3 6.4 3.4 4 3.5 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo FATIC down, 26 de Febrero across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 575 Nacional B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Deportivo FATIC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). 26 de Febrero away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Deportivo FATIC, 1.07 for 26 de Febrero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Nacional B

DEPORTIVO FATIC

DWLWWL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 6–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

26 DE FEBRERO

WLWWWW2–0 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
3	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
4	Virginia	6	+7	14
5	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
6	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
7	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
8	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
9	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
10	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
11	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
12	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
13	Chaco	6	+4	9
14	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
15	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
16	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
17	Club Universitario	6	0	8
18	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
19	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
20	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
21	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
22	Libertad	6	−22	1
23	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
24	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0