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Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz v Mineros Potosi

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

4–1After penalties

Mineros Potosi

Nacional B · SUN 18 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 4–1 Mineros Potosi CIUDAD NUEVA SANTA CRUZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.267

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 4–1, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz v Mineros Potosi
2′Much as we predicted: Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–18–24
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
42′We published Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz at 58%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 1–0 Mineros Potosi
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win: 58% at kick-off, 77% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 2–0 Mineros Potosi
46′We published Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz at 58%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′We said Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–31–23 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 2–0 Mineros Potosi
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
46′SECOND HALF Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 2–0 Mineros Potosi
47′We published Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz at 58%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 3–0 Mineros Potosi
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
66′We published Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 4–0 Mineros Potosi
102′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
102′⚽ GOAL · 90+12' Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 4–1 Mineros Potosi
154′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz likeliest at over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 4–1 Mineros Potosi after penalties
FTCiudad Nueva Santa Cruz 4–1 Mineros Potosi after 90 minutes, as graded · Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 58%, draw 18%, Mineros Potosi 24%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz v Mineros PotosiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win58%

Draw18%

Mineros Potosi win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

Mineros Potosi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ciudad nueva santa cruz winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz v Mineros Potosi~~2.32 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~2 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz win	58%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Mineros Potosi win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz or draw	76%	–	–
Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz clean sheet	26%	–	–
Mineros Potosi clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.1 4.4 2.6 1 6.6 7.2 5.4 2.6 2 6.5 8.6 6.0 2.9 3 4.9 6.5 4.5 2.2 4 2.9 3.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz down, Mineros Potosi across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 587 Nacional B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mineros Potosi away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz, 1.41 for Mineros Potosi. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MIN 4–1 CIU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 30 Aug

CIUDAD NUEVA SANTA CRUZ

DWDWWL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–4

MINEROS POTOSI

LWWWLW0–1 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 7–0 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
4	Libertad	6	−22	1
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7