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CD IN San Juan FC v Chaco

CD IN San Juan FC

3–2Full time

Chaco

Nacional B · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

CD IN San Juan FC 3–2 Chaco CD IN SAN JUAN FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD IN San Juan FC win~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.029

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD IN San Juan FC win at 86%.
1′Much as we predicted: CD IN San Juan FC was 86% before kick-off and our model makes it 86% now. 0–0 · 86–8–6
1′KICK-OFF CD IN San Juan FC v Chaco
3′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 71%. 0–1 · 71–14–14
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' CD IN San Juan FC 0–1 Chaco
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 71% now
8′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–1 · 69–15–15
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 66% now
19′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–1 · 64–18–18
29′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–1 · 59–20–21
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 56% now
36′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–1 · 54–23–24
41′Goals are coming at about the 5.0 we expected. 1–1 · 74–17–8
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' CD IN San Juan FC 1–1 Chaco
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME CD IN San Juan FC 1–1 Chaco
46′SECOND HALF CD IN San Juan FC 1–1 Chaco
84′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 22–73–5
84′We expected about 5.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–73–5
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' CD IN San Juan FC
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Chaco
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 22% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was CD IN San Juan FC win 22%)
88′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–2 · 16–81–4
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' CD IN San Juan FC 2–2 Chaco
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 16% now
89′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–83–3
92′We said CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–90–2
92′We published CD IN San Juan FC at 86%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' CD IN San Juan FC 3–2 Chaco
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' CD IN San Juan FC win: 86% at kick-off, 98% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' CD IN San Juan FC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME CD IN San Juan FC 3–2 Chaco
FTCD IN San Juan FC 3–2 Chaco · CD IN San Juan FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD IN San Juan FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD IN San Juan FC 86%, draw 8%, Chaco 6%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on CD IN San Juan FC v ChacoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 10:01 · locked at kick-off

CD IN San Juan FC win86%

Draw8%

Chaco win6%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD IN San Juan FC

Chaco

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd in san juan fc winFirst published 16 Oct 10:01 · locked at kick-off

86% The market–

Us86%

We make CD IN San Juan FC an 86% chance to win. The model expects 4.1–1.0, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CD IN San Juan FC v Chaco~~4.06 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD IN San Juan FC win	86%	–	–
Draw	8%	–	–
Chaco win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	71%	–	–
CD IN San Juan FC or draw	94%	–	–
CD IN San Juan FC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Chaco clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.1%

0123450 1 3.6 2.9 2 5.9 5.6 2.8 3 7.1 6.7 3.3 4 6.7 6.3 3.1 5 5.3 4.9 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+CD IN San Juan FC down, Chaco across0–5 goals a side shown (76.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 584 Nacional B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CD IN San Juan FC at home: 2.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chaco away: 1.50 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.06 goals for CD IN San Juan FC, 0.97 for Chaco. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–4 CDI · CDI 5–1 CHA · CHA 1–1 CDI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug

CD IN SAN JUAN FC

DWWLWW1–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 4–0

CHACO

WLLWWL3–2 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 5–1 · 6–1 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7