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Atletico Sucre v EM Huanuni

Atletico Sucre

1–5Full time

EM Huanuni

Nacional B · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Atletico Sucre 1–5 EM Huanuni ATLETICO SUCRE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Sucre win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Sucre win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Sucre 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
22′We said Atletico Sucre at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
45′We said Atletico Sucre at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
57′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 2–8–90
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Atletico Sucre win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was EM Huanuni win 27%)
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' EM Huanuni win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atletico Sucre win 2%)
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Atletico Sucre win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was EM Huanuni win 27%)
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' EM Huanuni win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atletico Sucre win 2%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' EM Huanuni win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atletico Sucre win 2%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Atletico Sucre win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was EM Huanuni win 27%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Atletico Sucre win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was EM Huanuni win 27%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' EM Huanuni win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atletico Sucre win 2%)
65′We said Atletico Sucre at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Atletico Sucre win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was EM Huanuni win 27%)
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Atletico Sucre win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' EM Huanuni win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atletico Sucre win 2%)
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Atletico Sucre 0–3 EM Huanuni
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Atletico Sucre 1–3 EM Huanuni
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Atletico Sucre 1–4 EM Huanuni
78′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Atletico Sucre 1–5 EM Huanuni
FTFULL TIME Atletico Sucre 1–5 EM Huanuni
FTAtletico Sucre 1–5 EM Huanuni · Atletico Sucre win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico Sucre win49%

Draw20%

EM Huanuni win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Sucre

EM Huanuni

15Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
12	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico sucre winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Atletico Sucre a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Sucre win	49%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
EM Huanuni win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Atletico Sucre or draw	69%	–	–
Atletico Sucre clean sheet	26%	–	–
EM Huanuni clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.8 6.8 4.1 2.0 1 8.3 8.8 6.5 3.1 2 6.7 8.5 5.7 2.7 3 4.2 5.3 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Sucre down, EM Huanuni across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 577 Nacional B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Sucre at home: 3.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). EM Huanuni away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Atletico Sucre, 1.40 for EM Huanuni. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–1 EMH · EMH 3–2 ATL

Form · last six in Nacional B

ATLETICO SUCRE

WLWLLW8–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

EM HUANUNI

DWDWWW2–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	26 de Febrero	7	+7	15
2	Virginia	7	+7	15
3	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
4	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
5	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
6	Deportivo FATIC	7	+7	13
7	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
8	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
9	Wilstermann Cooperativa	7	+3	11
10	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
11	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
12	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
13	Chaco	6	+4	9
14	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
15	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
16	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
17	Club Universitario	6	0	8
18	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
19	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
20	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
21	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
22	Libertad	6	−22	1
23	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
24	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0