26 de Febrero v Deportivo FATIC prediction · Nacional B

After 90 minutesGraded 17 Oct 22:31

26 de Febrero 1–0 Deportivo FATIC 26 DE FEBRERO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said 26 de Febrero win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.392

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–0, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 26 de Febrero win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: 26 de Febrero was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–22–29
1′KICK-OFF 26 de Febrero v Deportivo FATIC
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' 26 de Febrero win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME 26 de Febrero 0–0 Deportivo FATIC
46′SECOND HALF 26 de Febrero 0–0 Deportivo FATIC
48′We said 26 de Febrero at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–39–24
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was 26 de Febrero win 36%)
87′We said 26 de Febrero at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–87–5
87′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 7–87–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' 26 de Febrero win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We published 26 de Febrero at 49%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' 26 de Febrero 1–0 Deportivo FATIC
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' 26 de Febrero win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' 26 de Febrero win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
91′We said 26 de Febrero at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' 26 de Febrero win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME 26 de Febrero 1–0 Deportivo FATIC after penalties
FT26 de Febrero 1–0 Deportivo FATIC after 90 minutes, as graded · 26 de Febrero win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

26 de Febrero are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 26 de Febrero 49%, draw 22%, Deportivo FATIC 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on 26 de Febrero v Deportivo FATICBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 10:01 · locked at kick-off

26 de Febrero win49%

Draw22%

Deportivo FATIC win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

26 de Febrero

Deportivo FATIC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Nacional B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 26 de febrero winFirst published 16 Oct 10:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make 26 de Febrero a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 26 de Febrero v Deportivo FATIC~~1.65 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
26 de Febrero win	49%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Deportivo FATIC win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
26 de Febrero or draw	71%	–	–
26 de Febrero clean sheet	32%	–	–
Deportivo FATIC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.6%

0123450 5.8 8.1 4.3 1 10.6 10.1 6.3 2.6 2 7.9 8.7 5.0 2.0 3 4.5 5.0 2.9 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+26 de Febrero down, Deportivo FATIC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 584 Nacional B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Nacional B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

26 de Febrero at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Deportivo FATIC away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for 26 de Febrero, 1.18 for Deportivo FATIC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–0 DEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Nacional B this season · since 29 Aug

26 DE FEBRERO

LWWWWL2–3 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO FATIC

WLWWLW1–0 · 1–2 · 6–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	+9	14
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	+6	10
3	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
1	26 de Febrero	6	+8	15
2	Chaco	6	+4	9
3	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7
4	Ingenieros	6	−7	4
1	Independiente CBBA	6	+6	15
2	Mineros Potosi	6	+12	10
3	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
4	Atletico Juniors	6	−21	0
1	Virginia	6	+7	14
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	+11	11
3	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
4	Universitario Beni	6	−16	0
1	CD IN San Juan FC	6	+8	13
2	Deportivo Tigres	6	+4	8
3	Club Universitario	6	0	8
4	Universitario Tarija	6	−12	4
1	Primero Mayo	6	+1	12
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	+3	11
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	CD Guadalajara	6	−6	2
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	+3	10
2	Atletico Sucre	6	+7	9
3	Unión Tarija	6	+2	9
4	San Martin de Yacuiba	6	−2	9
5	Club Universitario	6	0	8
6	Hiska Nacional	6	−5	7