Kariba v Agama prediction · Premier Soccer League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Kariba 0–1 Agama KARIBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kariba win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.989

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kariba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kariba 46%, draw 35%, Agama 19%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on Kariba v AgamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kariba win46%

Draw35%

Agama win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueNyamhunga Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kariba

Agama

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier Soccer League (Zimbabwe)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Kariba	30	−8	32
15	Agama	30	−22	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kariba winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Kariba a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kariba v Agama~~1.08 – 0.59

~~Form · last six in Premier Soccer League this season · since 26 July~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 32 v 25~~12 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kariba win	46%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Agama win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	24%	–	–
Both teams to score	30%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Kariba or draw	81%	–	–
Kariba clean sheet	56%	–	–
Agama clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.1%

0123450 20.1 10.1 3.3 1 19.2 12.9 3.5 2 10.9 6.4 3 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kariba down, Agama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,799 Premier Soccer League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.7% of games this season, across 270 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kariba at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Agama away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Kariba, 0.59 for Agama. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AGA 1–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Soccer League this season · since 26 July

KARIBA

LDLDLW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

AGAMA

WLLWLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hardrock	30	+34	63
2	Scotland Mabvuku	30	+34	61
3	Ngezi Platinum	30	+11	52
4	Dynamos	30	+18	51
5	CAPS United	30	+9	48
6	Herentals	30	+3	48
7	MWOS	30	+7	42
8	Highlanders	30	+4	42
9	Chicken Inn	30	−1	42
10	Platinum	30	−1	40
11	Simba Bhora	30	−1	36
12	Kariba	30	−8	32
13	Hunters	30	−11	32
14	Bulawayo Chiefs	30	−10	31
15	Agama	30	−22	25
16	Triangle United	30	−14	24
17	TelOne	30	−22	22
18	Manica Diamonds	30	−30	20