ZESCO United v Mutondo Stars prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

ZESCO United 5–0 Mutondo Stars ZESCO UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ZESCO United win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ZESCO United win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: ZESCO United was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–29–15
1′KICK-OFF ZESCO United v Mutondo Stars
3′We published ZESCO United at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' ZESCO United 1–0 Mutondo Stars
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 85% now
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' ZESCO United
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 55% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' ZESCO United 1–0 Mutondo Stars
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 85% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
39′We published ZESCO United at 57%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' ZESCO United 2–0 Mutondo Stars
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
40′We published ZESCO United at 57%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
40′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' ZESCO United 3–0 Mutondo Stars
45′HALF-TIME ZESCO United 3–0 Mutondo Stars
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' ZESCO United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 42% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' ZESCO United 3–0 Mutondo Stars
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
46′SECOND HALF ZESCO United 3–0 Mutondo Stars
63′4 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' ZESCO United 4–0 Mutondo Stars
76′We said ZESCO United at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–75–7
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' ZESCO United
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 18% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was ZESCO United win over 99%)
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' ZESCO United 4–0 Mutondo Stars
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' ZESCO United win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 75%)
84′We said ZESCO United at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' ZESCO United
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 9% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was ZESCO United win over 99%)
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' ZESCO United 4–0 Mutondo Stars
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' ZESCO United win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 88%)
87′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' ZESCO United
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was ZESCO United win over 99%)
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' ZESCO United 5–0 Mutondo Stars
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' ZESCO United win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 91%)
92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+2' ZESCO United
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, 3% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was ZESCO United win over 99%)
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' ZESCO United 5–0 Mutondo Stars
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' ZESCO United win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' ZESCO United win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 96%)
FTFULL TIME ZESCO United 5–0 Mutondo Stars
FTZESCO United 5–0 Mutondo Stars · ZESCO United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ZESCO United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ZESCO United 57%, draw 28%, Mutondo Stars 15%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on ZESCO United v Mutondo StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ZESCO United win57%

Draw28%

Mutondo Stars win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ZESCO United

Mutondo Stars

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zesco united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make ZESCO United a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ZESCO United v Mutondo Stars~~1.43 – 0.59

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W0 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ZESCO United win

Published at 56%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ZESCO United win	57%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mutondo Stars win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
ZESCO United or draw	85%	–	–
ZESCO United clean sheet	56%	–	–
Mutondo Stars clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.3%

0123450 14.2 7.2 2.3 1 18.3 11.7 3.3 2 13.5 7.8 2.3 3 6.5 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ZESCO United down, Mutondo Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ZESCO United at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mutondo Stars away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for ZESCO United, 0.59 for Mutondo Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MUT 1–0 ZES · ZES 3–0 MUT · MUT 1–0 ZES · ZES 2–0 MUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

ZESCO UNITED

DLD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

MUTONDO STARS

LLL1–3 · 2–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27 · Premier League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0