ZESCO United v Mufulira Wanderers prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

ZESCO United 0–0 Mufulira Wanderers ZESCO UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ZESCO United win~~51%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.761

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ZESCO United win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: ZESCO United 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–32–17
1′KICK-OFF ZESCO United v Mufulira Wanderers
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was ZESCO United win 40%)
40′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–15
45′HALF-TIME ZESCO United 0–0 Mufulira Wanderers
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 37% now
46′SECOND HALF ZESCO United 0–0 Mufulira Wanderers
49′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' ZESCO United 0–1 Mufulira Wanderers
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Mufulira Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 26%)
50′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–26–65
51′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+6' Mufulira Wanderers
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+6' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 34% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Mufulira Wanderers win 14%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
59′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–12
67′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
73′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
78′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–6
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
90′We said ZESCO United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' ZESCO United win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME ZESCO United 0–0 Mufulira Wanderers
FTZESCO United 0–0 Mufulira Wanderers · ZESCO United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ZESCO United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ZESCO United 51%, draw 32%, Mufulira Wanderers 17%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on ZESCO United v Mufulira WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ZESCO United win51%

Draw32%

Mufulira Wanderers win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ZESCO United

Mufulira Wanderers

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zesco united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market55%

Us51%

~~Market~~55%

We make ZESCO United a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ZESCO United v Mufulira Wanderers~~1.24 – 0.59

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~1 v 8

~~The market · ZESCO United win~~55% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ZESCO United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ZESCO United win	51%	55%	−4
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Mufulira Wanderers win	17%	16%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Both teams to score	32%	37%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	11%	17%	−6
ZESCO United or draw	83%	84%	−1
ZESCO United clean sheet	56%	–	–
Mufulira Wanderers clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.2%

0123450 17.0 8.9 2.8 1 19.2 12.2 3.4 2 12.2 7.1 2.1 3 5.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ZESCO United down, Mufulira Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,552 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 24.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ZESCO United at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mufulira Wanderers away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for ZESCO United, 0.59 for Mufulira Wanderers. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ZES 1–2 MUF · MUF 0–1 ZES · MUF 0–1 ZES · ZES 2–0 MUF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

ZESCO UNITED

DL1–1 · 0–1

MUFULIRA WANDERERS

LD1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0