Zanaco v NAPSA Stars prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Zanaco 1–1 NAPSA Stars ZANACO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zanaco win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.647

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zanaco win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zanaco was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–35–25
1′KICK-OFF Zanaco v NAPSA Stars
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Zanaco win 36%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Zanaco win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
45′Much as we predicted: Zanaco was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 29% now. 0–0 · 29–51–20
45′HALF-TIME Zanaco 0–0 NAPSA Stars
46′SECOND HALF Zanaco 0–0 NAPSA Stars
48′We said Zanaco at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–53–19
57′We said Zanaco at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Zanaco win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
67′We said Zanaco at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
74′We said Zanaco at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–10
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Zanaco win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
81′We said Zanaco at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
87′We said Zanaco at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Zanaco 0–1 NAPSA Stars
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Zanaco win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' NAPSA Stars win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' NAPSA Stars
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Zanaco win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was NAPSA Stars win 3%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Zanaco 0–1 NAPSA Stars
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Zanaco win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' NAPSA Stars win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
92′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 1–1 · 2–96–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Zanaco 1–1 NAPSA Stars
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was NAPSA Stars win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Zanaco 1–1 NAPSA Stars
FTZanaco 1–1 NAPSA Stars · Zanaco win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zanaco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zanaco 40%, draw 35%, NAPSA Stars 25%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Zanaco v NAPSA StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zanaco win40%

Draw35%

NAPSA Stars win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zanaco

NAPSA Stars

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zanaco winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Zanaco a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zanaco v NAPSA Stars~~0.99 – 0.72

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zanaco win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zanaco win	40%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
NAPSA Stars win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Zanaco or draw	75%	–	–
Zanaco clean sheet	49%	–	–
NAPSA Stars clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.9%

0123450 18.9 12.2 4.7 1 17.1 13.4 4.6 2 8.9 6.3 2.3 3 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zanaco down, NAPSA Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,548 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zanaco at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). NAPSA Stars away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Zanaco, 0.72 for NAPSA Stars. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NAP 2–0 ZAN · ZAN 0–2 NAP · NAP 1–0 ZAN · ZAN 0–1 NAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

ZANACO

WL1–0 · 2–3

NAPSA STARS

DD1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zanaco	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0