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Zanaco v Kansanshi Dynamos

Zanaco

3–0Full time

Kansanshi Dynamos

Super League · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos ZANACO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zanaco win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zanaco win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zanaco 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–34–25
1′KICK-OFF Zanaco v Kansanshi Dynamos
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Zanaco win 38%)
34′We said Zanaco at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–5
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Zanaco 1–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Zanaco win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 44%)
35′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 78–18–5
40′We said Zanaco at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Zanaco 2–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Zanaco 2–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Zanaco
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 30% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Zanaco win 96%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Zanaco 2–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Zanaco win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 49%)
46′SECOND HALF Zanaco 2–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
54′We said Zanaco at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–55–18
59′We said Zanaco at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Zanaco
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zanaco win over 99%)
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, over 99% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Zanaco win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 64%)
73′We said Zanaco at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–0 · 16–73–11
73′GOAL DISALLOWED · 73' Zanaco
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Zanaco win over 99%)
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, over 99% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Zanaco win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 73%)
77′We said Zanaco at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–9
77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 77' Zanaco
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Zanaco win over 99%)
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, over 99% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Zanaco win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 78%)
81′We said Zanaco at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Zanaco
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Zanaco win over 99%)
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Zanaco win: 41% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Zanaco win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 84%)
94′We said Zanaco at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–0 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Zanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos
FTZanaco 3–0 Kansanshi Dynamos · Zanaco win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zanaco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zanaco 41%, draw 34%, Kansanshi Dynamos 25%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Zanaco v Kansanshi DynamosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zanaco win41%

Draw34%

Kansanshi Dynamos win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zanaco

Kansanshi Dynamos

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zanaco winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Zanaco a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zanaco v Kansanshi Dynamos~~1.06 – 0.77

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~1 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zanaco win	41%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Kansanshi Dynamos win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Zanaco or draw	75%	–	–
Zanaco clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kansanshi Dynamos clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 11.6 4.8 1 16.2 13.7 5.0 2 8.9 6.8 2.6 3 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zanaco down, Kansanshi Dynamos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zanaco at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kansanshi Dynamos away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Zanaco, 0.77 for Kansanshi Dynamos. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAN 1–0 ZAN · ZAN 1–0 KAN · KAN 2–1 ZAN · ZAN 1–0 KAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

ZANACO

WLD1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

KANSANSHI DYNAMOS

DLW0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Premier League · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zanaco	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0