Nkwazi v ZESCO United prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NkwaziDrawZESCO United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Nkwazi 30%, draw 36%, ZESCO United 34%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Nkwazi v ZESCO UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nkwazi win30%

Draw36%

ZESCO United win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nkwazi

ZESCO United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nkwazi v ZESCO United~~0.78 – 0.87

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W0 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~7 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nkwazi win	30%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
ZESCO United win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	50%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Nkwazi or draw	66%	–	–
Nkwazi clean sheet	42%	–	–
ZESCO United clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.1%

0123450 20.1 15.9 7.3 2.2 1 14.2 13.5 5.6 2 5.9 5.0 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nkwazi down, ZESCO United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nkwazi at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). ZESCO United away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Nkwazi, 0.87 for ZESCO United. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NKW 1–1 ZES · ZES 0–1 NKW · NKW 2–2 ZES · ZES 1–1 NKW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

NKWAZI

LDDD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

ZESCO UNITED

DLDW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27 · Premier League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0