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Model 1.2

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Nkwazi v Green Eagles

Nkwazi
0–0Full time
Green Eagles

Super League · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Nkwazi 0–0 Green Eagles DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said a draw36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 35–37–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Nkwazi v Green Eagles
  4. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
  5. 36′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 48%. 0–0 · 28–48–24
  6. 40′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 50%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Nkwazi 0–0 Green Eagles
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Nkwazi 0–0 Green Eagles
  9. 49′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 55%. 0–0 · 25–55–21
  10. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
  11. 57′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 22–60–18
  12. 63′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
  13. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
  14. 68′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–0 · 16–70–14
  15. 73′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–0 · 13–75–11
  16. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
  17. 77′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–0 · 11–80–9
  18. 81′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–0 · 8–85–7
  19. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 87% now
  20. 84′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
  21. 90′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–0 · 3–95–2
  22. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
  23. FTFULL TIME Nkwazi 0–0 Green Eagles
  24. FTNkwazi 0–0 Green Eagles · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Nkwazi 35%, draw 36%, Green Eagles 29%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Nkwazi v Green EaglesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nkwazi win35%
Draw36%
Green Eagles win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nkwazi

Green Eagles

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · Premier League · group 2

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Green Eagles000
7Nkwazi000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
36% The market–
Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Nkwazi v Green Eagles0.88 – 0.76
Form · Super League this season · since 3 OctW0 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L0
Table places · points 0 v 07 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nkwazi win35%––
Draw36%––
Green Eagles win29%––
Over 2.5 goals23%––
Both teams to score32%––
Over 1.5 goals49%––
Over 3.5 goals9%––
Nkwazi or draw71%––
Nkwazi clean sheet47%––
Green Eagles clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.5%
0123450 20.5 14.0 5.7 1 16.2 13.6 4.9 2 7.4 5.6 2.1 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Nkwazi down, Green Eagles across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.40
Over 2.52 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsGRE 1–0 NKW · NKW 1–1 GRE · GRE 0–1 NKW · NKW 0–0 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

NKWAZI

LDD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

GREEN EAGLES

WWW4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Premier League · group 2
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ZESCO United000
2Green Buffaloes000
3Kabwe Warriors000
4Red Arrows000
5Roan United000
6Green Eagles000
7Nkwazi000
8Mufulira Wanderers000
9Mutondo Stars000
10Chirundu Utd000

The competition's standings before kick-off.