Nkana v Nchanga Rangers prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Nkana 2–0 Nchanga Rangers NKANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nkana win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nkana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nkana 45%, draw 34%, Nchanga Rangers 22%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Nkana v Nchanga RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nkana win45%

Draw34%

Nchanga Rangers win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nkana

Nchanga Rangers

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nkana winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Nkana a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nkana v Nchanga Rangers~~1.09 – 0.66

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~3 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nkana win	45%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Nchanga Rangers win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Nkana or draw	78%	–	–
Nkana clean sheet	52%	–	–
Nchanga Rangers clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%

0123450 18.2 10.8 3.8 1 18.1 13.0 4.1 2 10.2 6.7 2.2 3 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nkana down, Nchanga Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,552 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 24.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nkana at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nchanga Rangers away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Nkana, 0.66 for Nchanga Rangers. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NKA 0–1 NCH · NCH 1–1 NKA · NCH 2–0 NKA · NKA 0–0 NCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

NKANA

WW1–0 · 4–1

NCHANGA RANGERS

LL0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zanaco	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0