NAPSA Stars v Nchanga Rangers prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

NAPSA Stars 0–1 Nchanga Rangers NAPSA STARS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NAPSA Stars win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with NAPSA Stars just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: NAPSA Stars 39%, draw 37%, Nchanga Rangers 24%. Over 2.5 goals 21%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on NAPSA Stars v Nchanga RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NAPSA Stars win39%

Draw37%

Nchanga Rangers win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NAPSA Stars

Nchanga Rangers

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · napsa stars winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make NAPSA Stars a 39% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 22%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NAPSA Stars v Nchanga Rangers~~0.92 – 0.66

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W0 D3 L0 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NAPSA Stars win

Published at 38%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NAPSA Stars win	39%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Nchanga Rangers win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	21%	–	–
Both teams to score	30%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	47%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	8%	–	–
NAPSA Stars or draw	76%	–	–
NAPSA Stars clean sheet	52%	–	–
Nchanga Rangers clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.6%

0123450 21.6 12.9 4.5 1 18.1 13.1 4.1 2 8.7 5.7 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NAPSA Stars down, Nchanga Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NAPSA Stars at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nchanga Rangers away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for NAPSA Stars, 0.66 for Nchanga Rangers. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NAP 0–1 NCH · NCH 1–1 NAP · NCH 0–0 NAP · NAP 3–0 NCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

NAPSA STARS

DDD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

NCHANGA RANGERS

LLL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · Premier League · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zanaco	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0