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Model 1.1
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Kabwe Warriors v Mutondo Stars

Kabwe Warriors
3–2Full time
Mutondo Stars

Super League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30
Kabwe Warriors 3–2 Mutondo Stars KABWE WARRIORS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kabwe Warriors win50%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.384
The market’s Brier score0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kabwe Warriors win50%
Draw32%
Mutondo Stars win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kabwe warriors winPublished 10 Oct 16:17
50% The market51%
Us50%
Market51%

We make Kabwe Warriors a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2110 OCT 04:00
Our probability · kabwe warriors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kabwe Warriors win50%51%−1
Draw32%30%+2
Mutondo Stars win18%19%−1
Over 2.5 goals27%33%−6
Both teams to score32%38%−6
Over 1.5 goals54%59%−5
Over 3.5 goals11%16%−5
Kabwe Warriors or draw82%81%+1
Kabwe Warriors clean sheet55%––
Mutondo Stars clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.1%
0123450 17.3 9.3 3.0 1 19.1 12.4 3.5 2 11.9 7.0 2.1 3 4.8 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kabwe Warriors down, Mutondo Stars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.51 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsKAB 1–0 MUT · MUT 1–2 KAB · MUT 0–0 KAB · KAB 1–0 MUT

Form · last six in Super League

KABWE WARRIORS

WDLDLD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

MUTONDO STARS

LWDWLL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Green Eagles1+33
2Red Arrows1+23
3Green Buffaloes1+23
4Konkola Blades1+13
5Roan United1+13
6Nkana1+13
7Zanaco1+13
8Kabwe Warriors101
9Man Utd Zambia Academy101
10NAPSA Stars101
11ZESCO United101
12Kansanshi Dynamos101
13Makeni All Stars101
14Nkwazi1−10
15Power Dynamos1−10
16Nchanga Rangers1−10
17Trident1−10
18Mutondo Stars1−20
19Chirundu Utd1−20
20Mufulira Wanderers1−30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Last updated 2026-10-10 15:15 UTC.