Green Buffaloes v Nkwazi prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Green Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi GREEN BUFFALOES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Green Buffaloes win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.651

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Green Buffaloes win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Green Buffaloes 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–35–24
1′KICK-OFF Green Buffaloes v Nkwazi
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Green Buffaloes win 36%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Green Buffaloes win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Green Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi
46′We said Green Buffaloes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–19
46′SECOND HALF Green Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi
58′We said Green Buffaloes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Green Buffaloes win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
67′We said Green Buffaloes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
75′We said Green Buffaloes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Green Buffaloes win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
81′We said Green Buffaloes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
88′We said Green Buffaloes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Green Buffaloes win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Green Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi
FTGreen Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi · Green Buffaloes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Green Buffaloes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Green Buffaloes 41%, draw 35%, Nkwazi 25%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Green Buffaloes v NkwaziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Green Buffaloes win41%

Draw35%

Nkwazi win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Green Buffaloes

Nkwazi

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · green buffaloes winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Green Buffaloes a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Green Buffaloes v Nkwazi~~1.00 – 0.71

~~Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~2 v 7

~~The market · Green Buffaloes win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Green Buffaloes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Green Buffaloes win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	35%	32%	+3
Nkwazi win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	25%	34%	−9
Both teams to score	33%	41%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	52%	59%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	10%	17%	−7
Green Buffaloes or draw	75%	76%	−1
Green Buffaloes clean sheet	49%	–	–
Nkwazi clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.0%

0123450 19.0 12.1 4.6 1 17.3 13.4 4.5 2 9.0 6.3 2.3 3 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Green Buffaloes down, Nkwazi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,552 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 24.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Green Buffaloes at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nkwazi away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Green Buffaloes, 0.71 for Nkwazi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GRE 0–0 NKW · NKW 1–2 GRE · NKW 2–0 GRE · GRE 1–2 NKW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 3 Oct

GREEN BUFFALOES

WD2–0 · 0–0

NKWAZI

LD1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0