Wales W v Albania W prediction · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:03

Wales W 3–0 Albania W WALES W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wales W win~~79%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.068

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.062

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wales W win at 79%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wales W 79% before kick-off, 77% now. 0–0 · 77–13–9
1′KICK-OFF Wales W v Albania W
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Wales W win: 79% at kick-off, 69% now
32′34′ and it is 0–0: Wales W have scored. 0–0 · 68–21–11
32′⚽ GOAL · 34' Wales W 0–0 Albania W
34′We said Wales W at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 67%. 0–0 · 67–22–11
41′We said Wales W at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–24–12
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Wales W 1–0 Albania W · mayzee davies
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Wales W win: 79% at kick-off, 88% now
45′HALF-TIME Wales W 1–0 Albania W
46′SECOND HALF Wales W 1–0 Albania W
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Wales W 2–0 Albania W · mayzee davies
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Wales W 2–0 Albania W · Elise Hughes
54′Wales W ahead on 50′ through Elise Hughes. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Wales W win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
56′We said Wales W at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Albania W · On: Valentina Troka · Off: Xhesika Ndoj Corrected
63′Hannah Cain scores for Wales W on 62′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Wales W 3–0 Albania W · Hannah Cain
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Wales W win: 79% at kick-off, 100% now
65′We said Wales W at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Albania W · On: Mesuare Begallo · Off: Fortesa Berisha Corrected
67′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Albania W · On: Endrina Elezaj · Off: Ilarja Zarka Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Wales W · On: Rachel Susan Rowe · Off: Elise Hughes Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Wales W · On: Lois Kathleen Joel · Off: Hannah Cain Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Albania W · On: Rexhina Maxhalaku · Off: Mikaela Metalla Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Albania W · On: Arvina Nadiar Islami · Off: Qendresa Krasniqi Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Wales W · On: Casi Marie Gregson · Off: Mared Griffiths Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Wales W · On: Caitlin Williams · Off: Carrie Jones Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wales W · On: Olivia Francis · Off: Angharad Jane James Corrected
FTFULL TIME Wales W 3–0 Albania W
FTWales W 3–0 Albania W · Wales W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Wales W win79%

Draw11%

Albania W win10%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:15

VenueParc y Scarlets

RefereeIonela Alina Pesu

Line-ups

Wales W

4-2-3-1

Albania W

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wales W

Albania W

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Wales W	7	+13	17
35	Albania W	7	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wales W

4-2-3-1

21 S. Middleton-Patel

18 S. Hill

6 M. Davies

3 G. Evans

2 L. Woodham

8 A. James-Turner

4 S. Ingle

11 H. Cain

20 C. Jones

10 M. Griffiths

9 E. Hughes

Coach · Rhian Wilkinson

Substitutes

1 · S. Kelly

12 · L. Farrell Shrouder

7 · L. Joel

5 · E. Morgan

13 · R. Rowe

16 · C. Estcourt

17 · C. Williams

14 · P. Poole

15 · M. McAteer

23 · T. Teisar

19 · C. Gregson

22 · O. Francis

Albania W

5-3-2

12 R. Spahiu

20 K. Hamonikaj

14 E. Franja

22 M. Metalla

21 A. Hilaj

19 X. Ndoj

8 V. Levenaj

10 Q. Krasniqi

16 I. Zarka

7 F. Berisha

11 M. Doci

Coach · A. Grimaj

Substitutes

23 · K. Spaho

1 · A. Hyska

4 · R. Maxhalaku

15 · L. Dedgjonaj

9 · V. Troka

2 · E. Elezaj

18 · S. Begallo

13 · K. Borci

17 · F. Kuqi

3 · A. Islam

Our number · wales w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

79% The market80%

Us79%

~~Market~~80%

We make Wales W a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wales w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 79% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wales W win	79%	80%	−2
Draw	11%	14%	−3
Albania W win	10%	6%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	74%	60%	+13
Both teams to score	56%	35%	+21
Over 1.5 goals	89%	80%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	53%	40%	+13
Wales W or draw	90%	94%	−4
Wales W clean sheet	39%	–	–
Albania W clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.1%

0123450 3.0 1 7.2 4.8 2.7 2 9.1 8.5 3.9 3 8.8 8.2 3.8 4 6.4 6.0 2.8 5 3.7 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wales W down, Albania W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALB 0–1 WAL · ALB 0–1 WAL · WAL 4–0 ALB

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

WALES W

WWWDWW6–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

ALBANIA W

LLLDWL1–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 0–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Switzerland W	7	+17	19
2	Portugal W	7	+17	18
3	Finland W	7	+11	18
4	England W	7	+10	18
5	Scotland W	7	+24	17
6	Belgium W	7	+22	17
7	Wales W	7	+13	17
8	Germany W	6	+17	16
9	Hungary W	7	+11	16
10	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
11	Spain W	6	+18	15
12	Kosovo W	7	+16	15
13	Croatia W	7	+11	15
14	Norway W	7	+4	15
15	Netherlands W	7	+11	14
16	Denmark W	6	+7	14
17	Turkey W	7	+6	14
18	France W	6	+6	13
19	Italy W	7	+10	12
20	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
21	Republic of Ireland W	7	+8	12
22	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
23	Greece W	5	+5	12
24	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
25	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
26	Czechia W	7	+8	11
27	Estonia W	6	+5	11
28	Sweden W	7	+5	11
29	Lithuania W	7	+3	11
30	Romania W	5	+6	10
31	Belarus W	5	+7	9
32	Iceland W	7	−5	9
33	Austria W	7	−5	7
34	Kazakhstan W	5	−5	7
35	Albania W	7	−6	7
36	Fiji W	4	0	6
37	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
38	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
39	Northern Ireland W	7	−3	6
40	Slovakia W	7	−11	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Israel W	7	−14	6
43	Moldova W	4	+1	5
44	Slovenia W	7	−13	4
45	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
46	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
47	Samoa W	3	−8	3
48	Ukraine W	7	−15	3
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Poland W	7	−10	1
51	Armenia W	4	−12	1
52	Andorra W	6	−13	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Serbia W	7	−17	1
55	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
56	Tonga W	1	−3	0
57	Georgia W	4	−6	0
58	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
59	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
60	Latvia W	6	−13	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0