Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe › Ukraine W v Slovakia W

Back

Ukraine W v Slovakia W

Ukraine W
1–0Full time
Slovakia W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02
Ukraine W 1–0 Slovakia W UKRAINE W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Ukraine W win53%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.341
The market’s Brier score0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ukraine W win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Ukraine W was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ukraine W v Slovakia W
  4. 43′We said Ukraine W at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–35–24
  5. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ukraine W win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
  6. 45′Veronika Andrukhiv scores for Ukraine W on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  7. 45′We published Ukraine W at 53%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  8. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ukraine W 0–0 Slovakia W · Veronika Andrukhiv
  9. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ukraine W 1–0 Slovakia W · Veronika Andrukhiv
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Ukraine W 1–0 Slovakia W
  11. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ukraine W win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
  12. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ukraine W · On: Elizaveta Molodiuk · Off: T. Boychuk Corrected
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Ukraine W 1–0 Slovakia W
  14. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Martina Surnovska · Slovakia W
  15. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ukraine W · On: Inna hlushchenko · Off: Viktoriia Giryn Corrected
  16. 63′We published Ukraine W at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–3
  17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Slovakia W · On: Dominika Gondová · Off: Patricia Hmirova Corrected
  18. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ukraine W · On: Nadiia Kunina · Off: Yana Kalinina Corrected
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ukraine W · On: Roksolana Kravchuk · Off: Veronika Andrukhiv Corrected
  20. 72′We published Ukraine W at 53%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  21. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Tamila Khimich · Ukraine W
  22. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Ukraine W 2–0 Slovakia W · Veronika Andrukhiv
  23. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Ukraine W win: 53% at kick-off, 98% now
  24. 76′We published Ukraine W at 53%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
  25. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Ukraine W win: 53% at kick-off, 87% now
  26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ukraine W · On: Svitlana Kohut · Off: Tamila Khimich Corrected
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Slovakia W · On: Stela Semanová · Off: Laura Žemberyová Corrected
  28. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Slovakia W · On: Michaela Ferencová · Off: Martina Surnovska Corrected
  29. 81′We published Ukraine W at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  30. 87′Slovakia W have had 12.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  31. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Ukraine W win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
  32. FTFULL TIME Ukraine W 1–0 Slovakia W
  33. FTUkraine W 1–0 Slovakia W · Ukraine W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off

Ukraine W win53%
Draw20%
Slovakia W win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:00

RefereeEwa Augustyn

Line-ups

Ukraine W

4-1-4-1

Slovakia W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ukraine W

Slovakia W

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
40Slovakia W7−116
48Ukraine W7−153

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ukraine W

4-1-4-1

1 K. Boklach

8 M. Shaynyuk

21 L. Olkhova

14 L. Shmatko

18 K. Korsun

13 L. Zaborovets

5 V. Andrukhiv

22 T. Khimich

7 Y. Kalinina

10 V. Hiryn

9 T. Boychuk

Coach · Volodymyr Piatenko

Substitutes

2 · Y. Derkach

3 · V. Ostapiv

4 · Y. Kotyk

6 · A. Voronina

11 · Y. Molodiuk

15 · N. Kunina

16 · S. Kohut

17 · Y. Khrystiuk

19 · R. Kravchuk

20 · I. Hlushchenko

23 · K. Samson

Slovakia W

4-4-2

1 A. Toth

15 T. Moravkova

13 K. Kosikova

16 D. Bartovicova

22 D. Lemesova

14 L. Zemberyova

17 M. Mikolajova

10 M. Surnovska

11 P. Hmirova

9 L. Matavkova

8 K. Fabova

Coach · P. Kopúň

Substitutes

2 · D. Gondova

3 · L. Retkesova

4 · A. Horvathova

5 · Z. Narozna

6 · B. Vargova

7 · N. Matusicova

12 · V. Opalkova

18 · L. Rumancikova

19 · S. Semanova

20 · J. Vojtekova

21 · M. Ferencova

23 · M. Geletova

Our number · ukraine w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off
53% The market55%
Us53%
Market55%

We make Ukraine W a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 05:55
Our probability · ukraine w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ukraine W win53%55%−3
Draw20%25%−5
Slovakia W win28%20%+8
Over 2.5 goals57%51%+6
Both teams to score56%51%+5
Over 1.5 goals78%74%+4
Over 3.5 goals35%31%+4
Ukraine W or draw72%80%−8
Ukraine W clean sheet30%––
Slovakia W clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%
0123450 3.2 8.0 3.7 1 10.9 9.0 6.6 2.6 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.3 3 4.7 5.7 3.4 4 2.1 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ukraine W down, Slovakia W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsSLO 1–3 UKR · SLO 1–2 UKR

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

UKRAINE W

LLLLLW1–3 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1

SLOVAKIA W

LLLLWL0–4 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Switzerland W7+1719
2Portugal W7+1718
3Finland W7+1118
4England W7+1018
5Scotland W7+2417
6Belgium W7+2217
7Wales W7+1317
8Germany W6+1716
9Hungary W7+1116
10New Zealand W5+2515
11Spain W6+1815
12Kosovo W7+1615
13Croatia W7+1115
14Norway W7+415
15Netherlands W7+1114
16Denmark W6+714
17Turkey W7+614
18France W6+613
19Italy W7+1012
20Papua New Guinea W5+1012
21Republic of Ireland W7+812
22Azerbaijan W6+612
23Greece W5+512
24American Samoa W6+512
25Bosnia-Herzegovina W6+1811
26Czechia W7+811
27Estonia W6+511
28Sweden W7+511
29Lithuania W7+311
30Romania W5+610
31Belarus W5+79
32Iceland W7−59
33Austria W7−57
34Kazakhstan W5−57
35Albania W7−67
36Fiji W406
37Bulgaria W6−16
38Faroe Islands W4−16
39Northern Ireland W7−36
40Slovakia W7−116
41North Macedonia W6−126
42Israel W7−146
43Moldova W4+15
44Slovenia W7−134
45Cook Islands W2−33
46New Caledonia W3−83
47Samoa W3−83
48Ukraine W7−153
49Cyprus W4−91
50Poland W7−101
51Armenia W4−121
52Andorra W6−131
53Montenegro W6−171
54Serbia W7−171
55Tahiti W1−10
56Tonga W1−30
57Georgia W4−60
58Vanuatu W3−70
59Solomon Islands W3−100
60Latvia W6−130
61Malta W6−200
62Liechtenstein W6−310
63Gibraltar W6−310
64Luxembourg W6−330

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.