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Turkey W v Slovenia W

Turkey W

3–3Full time

Slovenia W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Pendik Stadyumu

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Turkey W 3–3 Slovenia W TURKEY W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Turkey W win~~48%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.931

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Turkey W win at 48%.
69′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Meryem Küçükbirinci · Turkey W
69′🟨 YELLOW · 61' S. Kolman · Slovenia W
69′⚽ GOAL · 62' Turkey W 2–1 Slovenia W · N. Kajzba (assist Naja Poje Mihelič)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Turkey W · On: Tuana Shahnis Keles · Off: Melike Pekel Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 75' Turkey W 3–2 Slovenia W · Selen Altunkulak (assist Tuana Shahnis Keles)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Turkey W · On: Fatma Sakar · Off: İlayda Civelek Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Turkey W · On: E. Türkoğlu · Off: Kader hancar Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Slovenia W · On: Mirjam kastelec · Off: Jona Javorič Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Turkey W 3–2 Slovenia W · Mirjam kastelec (assist Izabela krizaj)
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Cansu Nur Kaya · Turkey W
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Turkey W · On: Vildan Kardesler · Off: Selen Altunkulak Corrected
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Turkey W 3–2 Slovenia W · N. Kajzba (assist Lara·Prasnikar)
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Turkey W 3–3 Slovenia W · N. Kajzba
FTFULL TIME Turkey W 3–3 Slovenia W
FTTurkey W 3–3 Slovenia W · Turkey W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Turkey W win48%

Draw22%

Slovenia W win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Pendik Stadyumu

Referee · Lina Lehtovaara

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Turkey W

4-1-4-1

23 G. Yaman

20 E. Keskin

2 M. Kucukbirinci

4 E. Karatas

17 I. Civelek

21 C. Kaya

8 M. Pekel

10 E. Topcu

6 S. Altunkulak

19 B. Seker

9 K. Hancar

Coach · N. Kırağası

Substitutes

1 · S. Akgoz

12 · G. Guleryuz

3 · F. Sakar

5 · I. Kaya

7 · A. Karabulut

11 · T. Mahmoud

13 · V. Kardesler

14 · H. Houssein

15 · K. Tag

16 · E. Turkoglu

18 · R. Kucuk

22 · M. Ozturk

Slovenia W

4-4-2

22 M. Pasar

17 I. Krizaj

10 D. Conc

2 L. Golob

14 T. Testen

19 J. Javoric

11 L. Prasnikar

6 K. Korosec

8 M. Zver

5 N. Mihelic

7 N. Kajzba

Coach · Saša Kolman

Substitutes

1 · T. Truntic

12 · I. Kocijan

3 · S. Agrez

4 · E. Kos

9 · M. Kastelec

13 · Z. Rakovec

15 · N. Trost

18 · S. Ketis

20 · M. Osojnik

21 · A. Mori

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Turkey W

4-1-4-1

23 G. Yaman

20 E. Keskin

2 M. Kucukbirinci

4 E. Karatas

17 I. Civelek

21 C. Kaya

8 M. Pekel

10 E. Topcu

6 S. Altunkulak

19 B. Seker

9 K. Hancar

Coach · N. Kırağası

Substitutes

1 · S. Akgoz

12 · G. Guleryuz

3 · F. Sakar

5 · I. Kaya

7 · A. Karabulut

11 · T. Mahmoud

13 · V. Kardesler

14 · H. Houssein

15 · K. Tag

16 · E. Turkoglu

18 · R. Kucuk

22 · M. Ozturk

Slovenia W

4-4-2

22 M. Pasar

17 I. Krizaj

10 D. Conc

2 L. Golob

14 T. Testen

19 J. Javoric

11 L. Prasnikar

6 K. Korosec

8 M. Zver

5 N. Mihelic

7 N. Kajzba

Coach · Saša Kolman

Substitutes

1 · T. Truntic

12 · I. Kocijan

3 · S. Agrez

4 · E. Kos

9 · M. Kastelec

13 · Z. Rakovec

15 · N. Trost

18 · S. Ketis

20 · M. Osojnik

21 · A. Mori

Our number · turkey w winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

48% The market31%

Us48%

~~Market~~31%

We make Turkey W a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · turkey w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. The market has gone from 29% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Turkey W win	48%	31%	+17
Draw	22%	29%	−7
Slovenia W win	30%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	42%	52%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	63%	70%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Turkey W or draw	70%	60%	+11
Turkey W clean sheet	39%	–	–
Slovenia W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 7.4 12.8 4.6 1 16.7 9.9 6.1 2 9.1 8.6 4.0 3 4.0 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Turkey W down, Slovenia W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Turkey W are at home.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Turkey W, 0.94 for Slovenia W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 16:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2019

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TUR 0–1 SLO · SLO 3–0 TUR · SLO 3–1 TUR · TUR 1–6 SLO

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

TURKEY W

WWLDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

SLOVENIA W

LWLLLL0–5 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0