Slovenia W v Turkey W prediction · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02

Slovenia W 2–0 Turkey W SLOVENIA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovenia W win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovenia W win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Slovenia W 52% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Slovenia W v Turkey W
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Turkey W
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' E. Keskin · Turkey W
42′Turkey W are down to ten from 28′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 41–36–24
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Slovenia W win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
45′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–37–23
45′HALF-TIME Slovenia W 0–0 Turkey W
46′SECOND HALF Slovenia W 0–0 Turkey W
48′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–39–23
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Turkey W · On: Kezban tag · Off: Melike Pekel Corrected
53′Slovenia W have had 9.0 attempts to 4.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 36–42–22
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Slovenia W win 36%)
58′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–21
63′Goalless on 63′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–50–19
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Slovenia W win: 52% at kick-off, 31% now
68′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–55–17
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Turkey W · On: Tuana Shahnis Keles · Off: Ebru Topcu Corrected
76′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–0 · 20–67–13
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Slovenia W win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Slovenia W · On: Mirjam kastelec · Off: Dominika Čonč Corrected
82′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–9
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Slovenia W 0–0 Turkey W · Maja Sternad
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Slovenia W · On: Sara Ketiš · Off: Mateja Zver Corrected
87′Maja Sternad scores for Slovenia W on 83′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 8–87–5
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' İlayda Civelek · Turkey W
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Slovenia W win: 52% at kick-off, 8% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kader hancar · Turkey W
90′We said Slovenia W at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–0 · 5–91–4
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Slovenia W 0–0 Turkey W · Mirjam kastelec
90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Slovenia W · On: Tinkara Testen · Off: Naja Poje Mihelič Corrected
FTFULL TIME Slovenia W 0–0 Turkey W
FTSlovenia W 2–0 Turkey W · Slovenia W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off

Slovenia W win52%

Draw20%

Turkey W win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:00

RefereeMaria Eugenia Gil Soriano

Line-ups

Slovenia W

3-4-3

Turkey W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Slovenia W

Turkey W

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Turkey W	7	+6	14
44	Slovenia W	7	−13	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Slovenia W

3-4-3

12 I. Kocijan

10 D. Conc

2 L. Golob

3 S. Agrez

5 N. Mihelic

6 K. Korosec

8 M. Zver

17 I. Krizaj

23 M. Sternad

11 L. Prasnikar

7 N. Kajzba

Coach · Saša Kolman

Substitutes

1 · T. Truntic

4 · E. Kos

9 · M. Kastelec

13 · Z. Rakovec

14 · T. Testen

15 · N. Trost

18 · S. Ketis

19 · J. Javoric

20 · M. Osojnik

21 · A. Mori

22 · M. Pasar

Turkey W

4-1-4-1

23 G. Yaman

20 E. Keskin

2 M. Kucukbirinci

4 E. Karatas

17 I. Civelek

21 C. Kaya

8 M. Pekel

10 E. Topcu

6 S. Altunkulak

19 B. Seker

9 K. Hancar

Coach · N. Kırağası

Substitutes

1 · S. Akgoz

3 · F. Sakar

5 · I. Kaya

7 · S. Abrahamsson

11 · T. Mahmoud

12 · G. Guleryuz

13 · V. Kardesler

14 · H. Houssein

15 · K. Tag

16 · E. Turkoglu

18 · R. Kucuk

22 · M. Ozturk

Our number · slovenia w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Slovenia W a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slovenia w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovenia W win	52%	58%	−6
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Turkey W win	28%	18%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	55%	52%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	31%	+2
Slovenia W or draw	72%	82%	−10
Slovenia W clean sheet	31%	–	–
Turkey W clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 3.6 8.4 3.8 1 11.5 9.3 6.5 2.5 2 8.2 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 4.7 5.5 3.2 4 2.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovenia W down, Turkey W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2019

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TUR 3–3 SLO · TUR 0–1 SLO · SLO 3–0 TUR · SLO 3–1 TUR

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

SLOVENIA W

WLLLLD1–0 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–3

TURKEY W

WLDWWD1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Switzerland W	7	+17	19
2	Portugal W	7	+17	18
3	Finland W	7	+11	18
4	England W	7	+10	18
5	Scotland W	7	+24	17
6	Belgium W	7	+22	17
7	Wales W	7	+13	17
8	Germany W	6	+17	16
9	Hungary W	7	+11	16
10	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
11	Spain W	6	+18	15
12	Kosovo W	7	+16	15
13	Croatia W	7	+11	15
14	Norway W	7	+4	15
15	Netherlands W	7	+11	14
16	Denmark W	6	+7	14
17	Turkey W	7	+6	14
18	France W	6	+6	13
19	Italy W	7	+10	12
20	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
21	Republic of Ireland W	7	+8	12
22	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
23	Greece W	5	+5	12
24	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
25	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
26	Czechia W	7	+8	11
27	Estonia W	6	+5	11
28	Sweden W	7	+5	11
29	Lithuania W	7	+3	11
30	Romania W	5	+6	10
31	Belarus W	5	+7	9
32	Iceland W	7	−5	9
33	Austria W	7	−5	7
34	Kazakhstan W	5	−5	7
35	Albania W	7	−6	7
36	Fiji W	4	0	6
37	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
38	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
39	Northern Ireland W	7	−3	6
40	Slovakia W	7	−11	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Israel W	7	−14	6
43	Moldova W	4	+1	5
44	Slovenia W	7	−13	4
45	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
46	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
47	Samoa W	3	−8	3
48	Ukraine W	7	−15	3
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Poland W	7	−10	1
51	Armenia W	4	−12	1
52	Andorra W	6	−13	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Serbia W	7	−17	1
55	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
56	Tonga W	1	−3	0
57	Georgia W	4	−6	0
58	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
59	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
60	Latvia W	6	−13	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0