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Slovakia W v Ukraine W

Slovakia W

1–3Full time

Ukraine W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Slovakia W 1–3 Ukraine W SLOVAKIA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovakia W win~~52%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.827

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.608

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovakia W win at 52%.
71′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ukraine W · On: Anastasiia Voronina · Off: Anna Petryk Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 47' Slovakia W 1–3 Ukraine W · Veronika Andrukhiv (assist Yana Kalinina)
71′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Kristina Kosikova · Slovakia W
71′⚽ GOAL · 52' Slovakia W 1–3 Ukraine W · T. Boychuk
71′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Slovakia W · On: Tamara Moravkova · Off: Dominika Gondová Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 60' M. Shaynyuk · Ukraine W
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ukraine W · On: Viktoriia Ostapiv · Off: Veronika Andrukhiv Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ukraine W · On: Yuliia Khrystiuk · Off: Yana Kalinina Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ukraine W · On: Roksolana Kravchuk · Off: T. Boychuk Corrected
71′SECOND HALF Slovakia W 1–3 Ukraine W
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Slovakia W · On: Andrea Horvathova · Off: Laura retkesova Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Slovakia W · On: Laura Žemberyová · Off: Patricia Hmirova Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ukraine W · On: Yana Derkach · Off: M. Shaynyuk Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Slovakia W · On: Stela Semanová · Off: Martina Surnovska Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Slovakia W · On: barbora vargova · Off: Kristina Kosikova Corrected
FTFULL TIME Slovakia W 1–3 Ukraine W
FTSlovakia W 1–3 Ukraine W · Slovakia W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Slovakia W win52%

Draw21%

Ukraine W win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Referee · Ivana Projkovska

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Slovakia W

4-1-4-1

1 A. Toth

3 L. Retkesova

16 D. Bartovicova

13 K. Kosikova

22 D. Lemesova

9 L. Matavkova

8 K. Fabova

11 P. Hmirova

17 M. Mikolajova

2 D. Gondova

10 M. Surnovska

Coach · P. Kopúň

Substitutes

23 · M. Geletova

12 · V. Opalkova

7 · N. Matusicova

20 · J. Vojtekova

6 · B. Vargova

15 · T. Moravkova

5 · Z. Narozna

21 · M. Ferencova

4 · A. Horvathova

18 · L. Rumancikova

19 · S. Semanova

14 · L. Zemberyova

Ukraine W

4-1-4-1

1 K. Boklach

3 A. Petryk

4 Y. Kotyk

18 K. Korsun

8 M. Shaynyuk

13 L. Zaborovets

5 V. Andrukhiv

22 T. Khimich

7 Y. Kalinina

10 V. Hiryn

9 T. Boychuk

Coach · Volodymyr Piatenko

Substitutes

23 · K. Samson

14 · L. Shmatko

6 · A. Voronina

21 · L. Olkhova

17 · Y. Khrystiuk

16 · S. Kohut

19 · R. Kravchuk

2 · Y. Derkach

11 · V. Ostapiv

15 · N. Kunina

20 · I. Hlushchenko

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Slovakia W

4-1-4-1

1 A. Toth

3 L. Retkesova

16 D. Bartovicova

13 K. Kosikova

22 D. Lemesova

9 L. Matavkova

8 K. Fabova

11 P. Hmirova

17 M. Mikolajova

2 D. Gondova

10 M. Surnovska

Coach · P. Kopúň

Substitutes

23 · M. Geletova

12 · V. Opalkova

7 · N. Matusicova

20 · J. Vojtekova

6 · B. Vargova

15 · T. Moravkova

5 · Z. Narozna

21 · M. Ferencova

4 · A. Horvathova

18 · L. Rumancikova

19 · S. Semanova

14 · L. Zemberyova

Ukraine W

4-1-4-1

1 K. Boklach

3 A. Petryk

4 Y. Kotyk

18 K. Korsun

8 M. Shaynyuk

13 L. Zaborovets

5 V. Andrukhiv

22 T. Khimich

7 Y. Kalinina

10 V. Hiryn

9 T. Boychuk

Coach · Volodymyr Piatenko

Substitutes

23 · K. Samson

14 · L. Shmatko

6 · A. Voronina

21 · L. Olkhova

17 · Y. Khrystiuk

16 · S. Kohut

19 · R. Kravchuk

2 · Y. Derkach

11 · V. Ostapiv

15 · N. Kunina

20 · I. Hlushchenko

Our number · slovakia w winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

52% The market35%

Us52%

~~Market~~35%

We make Slovakia W a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slovakia w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovakia W win	52%	35%	+17
Draw	21%	29%	−8
Ukraine W win	28%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	44%	46%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Slovakia W or draw	72%	64%	+8
Slovakia W clean sheet	38%	–	–
Ukraine W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 5.8 11.3 4.1 1 15.6 9.5 6.1 2 9.4 9.1 4.5 3 4.6 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovakia W down, Ukraine W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Slovakia W are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Slovakia W, 0.98 for Ukraine W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 16:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SLO 1–2 UKR

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

SLOVAKIA W

WLLLLW3–2 · 0–4 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 2–1

UKRAINE W

LLLLLL1–6 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0