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Model 1.1

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Serbia W v Finland W

Serbia W
1–3Full time
Finland W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · TUE 13 OCT · Sports Center of FA of Serbia

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02
Serbia W 1–3 Finland W FINLAND W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Finland W win40%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.549
The market’s Brier score0.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Finland W win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Serbia W v Finland W
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Finland W was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
  4. 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Serbia W 0–1 Finland W
  5. 21′Finland W ahead on 3′ through Emma Koivisto. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Finland W win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Serbia W 1–1 Finland W · Emma Koivisto
  8. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Serbia W 1–1 Finland W · Eveliina Summanen
  9. 42′Eveliina Summanen scores for Serbia W on 27′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–40–31
  10. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Finland W win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
  11. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Finland W win 31%)
  12. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Adelina Engman · Finland W
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Serbia W 1–1 Finland W
  14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Finland W win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Serbia W 1–1 Finland W
  16. 52′We said Finland W at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 27–45–28
  17. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Finland W · On: Ria Öling · Off: Katariina Kosola Corrected
  18. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Finland W · On: oona sevenius · Off: Adelina Engman Corrected
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Serbia W 1–2 Finland W · Eveliina Summanen
  20. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Serbia W 1–2 Finland W · Nea Lehtola
  21. 57′55′ and it is 1–2: Nea Lehtola on the scoresheet for Finland W. 1–2 · 5–20–75
  22. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Finland W win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
  23. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Finland W win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
  24. 62′We published Finland W at 40%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Serbia W · On: Anđela Milovanović · Off: Mina cavic Corrected
  26. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Serbia W · On: sofija sremcevic · Off: Sara Stokic Corrected
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Serbia W · On: sofija sremcevic · Off: Sara Stokic Corrected
  28. 67′We published Finland W at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  29. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Finland W win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
  30. 71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
  31. 76′We published Finland W at 40%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
  32. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Serbia W · On: Ana Šćepanović · Off: Anđela Frajtović Corrected
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Finland W · On: Emma Peuhkurinen · Off: Eveliina Summanen Corrected
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Finland W · On: Sanni Franssi · Off: Lotta Lindström Corrected
  35. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Serbia W · On: M. Bulatović · Off: Živana Stupar Corrected
  36. 86′We published Finland W at 40%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  37. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Finland W win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
  38. 88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Serbia W 1–2 Finland W · Olivia Ulenius
  39. 90′Finland W ahead on 89′ through Olivia Ulenius. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  40. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Finland W · On: Eva Nyström · Off: Olivia Ulenius Corrected
  41. FTFULL TIME Serbia W 1–2 Finland W
  42. FTSerbia W 1–3 Finland W · Finland W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off

Serbia W win37%
Draw23%
Finland W win40%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:00

VenueSports Center of FA of Serbia

RefereeMarta Huerta de Aza

Line-ups

Serbia W

4-3-3

Finland W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Serbia W

Finland W

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Finland W7+1118
54Serbia W7−171

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Serbia W

4-3-3

1 M. Kostic

16 M. Cavic

5 V. Slovic

6 N. Damjanovic

3 A. Frajtovic

21 Z. Stupar

8 D. Blagojevic

10 T. Filipovic

14 V. Milivojevic

15 S. Stokic

11 M. Ivanovic

Coach · L. Stojkanović

Substitutes

12 · S. Cetinja

23 · E. Aleksic

2 · A. Scepanovic

17 · M. Gakovic

4 · P. Stanic

22 · D. Stefanovic

9 · A. Milovanovic

7 · M. Mijatovic

19 · S. Sremcevic

20 · M. Bulatovic

13 · M. Saric

Finland W

4-1-4-1

1 A. Koivunen

5 E. Koivisto

22 N. Karvonen

6 J. Tynnila

16 N. Lehtola

13 O. Siren

9 K. Kosola

19 L. Lindstrom

20 E. Summanen

14 O. Ulenius

7 A. Engman

Coach · Marko Saloranta

Substitutes

23 · K. Talaslahti

12 · M. Majasaari

3 · E. Nystrom

2 · J. Mansaray

4 · R. Oling

15 · E. Peuhkurinen

10 · E. Siren

8 · M. Kiviranta

11 · V. Koivisto

17 · S. Franssi

18 · P. Nystrom

21 · O. Sevenius

Our number · finland w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off
40% The market60%
Us40%
Market60%

We make Finland W a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 14:34
Our probability · finland w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Serbia W win37%16%+21
Draw23%23%−1
Finland W win40%60%−20
Over 2.5 goals45%51%−5
Both teams to score49%48%+1
Over 1.5 goals69%74%−5
Over 3.5 goals24%29%−5
Serbia W or draw60%40%+20
Serbia W clean sheet28%––
Finland W clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.8%
0123450 6.1 12.8 6.7 2.9 1 12.3 10.6 8.2 3.5 2 6.1 7.8 5.0 2.1 3 2.5 3.2 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Serbia W down, Finland W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsFIN 3–1 SER · FIN 1–1 SER · SER 1–0 FIN

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

SERBIA W

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–6 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–3

FINLAND W

WWWWWW3–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Switzerland W7+1719
2Portugal W7+1718
3Finland W7+1118
4England W7+1018
5Scotland W7+2417
6Belgium W7+2217
7Wales W7+1317
8Germany W6+1716
9Hungary W7+1116
10New Zealand W5+2515
11Spain W6+1815
12Kosovo W7+1615
13Croatia W7+1115
14Norway W7+415
15Netherlands W7+1114
16Denmark W6+714
17Turkey W7+614
18France W6+613
19Italy W7+1012
20Papua New Guinea W5+1012
21Republic of Ireland W7+812
22Azerbaijan W6+612
23Greece W5+512
24American Samoa W6+512
25Bosnia-Herzegovina W6+1811
26Czechia W7+811
27Estonia W6+511
28Sweden W7+511
29Lithuania W7+311
30Romania W5+610
31Belarus W5+79
32Iceland W7−59
33Austria W7−57
34Kazakhstan W5−57
35Albania W7−67
36Fiji W406
37Bulgaria W6−16
38Faroe Islands W4−16
39Northern Ireland W7−36
40Slovakia W7−116
41North Macedonia W6−126
42Israel W7−146
43Moldova W4+15
44Slovenia W7−134
45Cook Islands W2−33
46New Caledonia W3−83
47Samoa W3−83
48Ukraine W7−153
49Cyprus W4−91
50Poland W7−101
51Armenia W4−121
52Andorra W6−131
53Montenegro W6−171
54Serbia W7−171
55Tahiti W1−10
56Tonga W1−30
57Georgia W4−60
58Vanuatu W3−70
59Solomon Islands W3−100
60Latvia W6−130
61Malta W6−200
62Liechtenstein W6−310
63Gibraltar W6−310
64Luxembourg W6−330

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.