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Romania W v Norway W

Romania W

0–2Full time

Norway W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Romania W 0–2 Norway W NORWAY W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Norway W win~~56%

~~The market said~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.033

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Norway W win at 56%.
29′10′ and it is 0–1: Guro Reiten on the scoresheet for Norway W. 0–1 · 5–15–81
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Norway W win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Melinda Magdolna Nagy · Romania W
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Romania W 0–2 Norway W · Guro Reiten
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Mihaela ciolacu · Romania W
39′Norway W ahead on 34′ through Frida Maanum. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
39′⚽ GOAL · 34' Romania W 0–2 Norway W · Frida Maanum
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Norway W win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
45′We said Norway W at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
45′SECOND HALF Romania W 0–2 Norway W
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Romania W · On: A. Stanciu · Off: Melinda Magdolna Nagy Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Norway W · On: Elisabeth Terland · Off: Frida Maanum Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Norway W · On: Vilde Risa · Off: Guro Reiten Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Romania W · On: S. Bumbar · Off: Ioana Cezara Stancu Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Norway W · On: Synne Sofie Jensen · Off: Thea Bjelde Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Romania W · On: Anda Gabriela Jivan · Off: Carmen Sorina Marcu Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Romania W · On: Andrea Herczeg · Off: Olga iordachiusi Corrected
FTFULL TIME Romania W 0–2 Norway W
FTRomania W 0–2 Norway W · Norway W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Romania W win23%

Draw21%

Norway W win56%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Referee · Heaslip Emily

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Romania W

4-3-3

1 A. Paraluta

3 M. Nagy

6 M. Ficzay

15 B. Goder

13 E. Gered

19 O. Iordachiusi

4 C. Botojel

10 M. Ciolacu

5 T. Nicoara

22 C. Marcu

16 I. Stancu

Coach · C. Dulca

Substitutes

23 · S. Campean

14 · A. Herczeg

2 · A. M. Stanciu

17 · C. Bistrian

9 · O. Negrea

20 · A. Borodi

8 · S. Bumbar

18 · A. Jivan

Norway W

3-4-3

1 C. Fiskerstrand

13 T. Bjelde

5 G. Bergsvand

16 M. Harviken

4 J. Blakstad

21 L. Naalsund

7 I. Engen

11 G. Reiten

18 F. Leonhardsen-Maanum

14 A. Hegerberg

22 S. Gaupset

Coach · Gemma Grainger

Substitutes

23 · S. Skoglund

12 · S. Panengstuen

6 · E. Woldvik

3 · M. Ostenstad

2 · M. Bratberg

17 · E. Godo

8 · V. Boe Risa

15 · J. Kielland

19 · C. Tandberg

9 · E. Terland

20 · S. Jensen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Romania W

4-3-3

1 A. Paraluta

3 M. Nagy

6 M. Ficzay

15 B. Goder

13 E. Gered

19 O. Iordachiusi

4 C. Botojel

10 M. Ciolacu

5 T. Nicoara

22 C. Marcu

16 I. Stancu

Coach · C. Dulca

Substitutes

23 · S. Campean

14 · A. Herczeg

2 · A. M. Stanciu

17 · C. Bistrian

9 · O. Negrea

20 · A. Borodi

8 · S. Bumbar

18 · A. Jivan

Norway W

3-4-3

1 C. Fiskerstrand

13 T. Bjelde

5 G. Bergsvand

16 M. Harviken

4 J. Blakstad

21 L. Naalsund

7 I. Engen

11 G. Reiten

18 F. Leonhardsen-Maanum

14 A. Hegerberg

22 S. Gaupset

Coach · Gemma Grainger

Substitutes

23 · S. Skoglund

12 · S. Panengstuen

6 · E. Woldvik

3 · M. Ostenstad

2 · M. Bratberg

17 · E. Godo

8 · V. Boe Risa

15 · J. Kielland

19 · C. Tandberg

9 · E. Terland

20 · S. Jensen

Our number · norway w winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

56% The market86%

Us56%

~~Market~~86%

We make Norway W a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are 29 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · norway w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 86% to 85% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Romania W win	23%	4%	+19
Draw	21%	11%	+10
Norway W win	56%	86%	−29
Over 2.5 goals	41%	66%	−26
Both teams to score	40%	33%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	84%	−20
Over 3.5 goals	20%	46%	−25
Romania W or draw	44%	14%	+29
Romania W clean sheet	22%	–	–
Norway W clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 17.7%

0123450 7.1 17.7 11.2 5.6 2.1 1 10.8 9.3 9.0 4.5 2 3.2 4.9 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Romania W down, Norway W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Romania W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Romania W, 1.50 for Norway W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

ROMANIA W

LWWWWD0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

NORWAY W

WLWWLW1–0 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Romania W

Norway W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Romania W

Norway W

Head to head

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

The table