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Portugal W v Northern Ireland W

Portugal W

3–1Full time

Northern Ireland W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:03

Portugal W 3–1 Northern Ireland W PORTUGAL W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portugal W win~~78%

~~The market said~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.075

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.033

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Portugal W win at 78%.
1′Much as we predicted: Portugal W was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–9
1′KICK-OFF Portugal W v Northern Ireland W
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 68% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 30' Portugal W 0–0 Northern Ireland W
30′Kess Elmore scores for Northern Ireland W on 30′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 67–22–10
33′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 66%. 0–0 · 66–23–11
38′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–26–11
45′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–31–40
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 60–29–11
45′45′ and it is 1–1: Carolina Santiago on the scoresheet for Portugal W. 1–1 · 60–29–11
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Portugal W 0–1 Northern Ireland W · Kess Elmore
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 29% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Northern Ireland W win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Portugal W win 29%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Portugal W 1–1 Northern Ireland W · Kess Elmore
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 60% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Portugal W win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Northern Ireland W win 11%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Portugal W 1–1 Northern Ireland W · Carolina Santiago
45′HALF-TIME Portugal W 1–1 Northern Ireland W
46′SECOND HALF Portugal W 1–1 Northern Ireland W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Northern Ireland W · On: Lucy-Jayne Grant · Off: Emily Cassap Corrected
52′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 1–1 · 55–34–11
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 55% now
55′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–36–11
57′Portugal W have had 10.0 attempts to 4.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 52–37–11
60′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–40–11
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Portugal W · On: Jessica Silva · Off: Carolina Santiago Corrected
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 47% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Portugal W · On: Telma Encarnacao · Off: Stephanie Ribeiro Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Portugal W · On: Andreia Norton · Off: Dolores Silva Corrected
66′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–47–10
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Portugal W win 41%)
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' aimee kerr · Northern Ireland W
70′We said Portugal W at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–52–9
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Northern Ireland W · On: L. Mcfarland · Off: Casey Howe Corrected
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 35% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Northern Ireland W · On: Abi Sweetlove · Off: Natalie johnson Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Portugal W · On: Tatiana Pinto · Off: Andreia Faria Corrected
75′Portugal W ahead on 74′ through Jessica Silva. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–1
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Portugal W 2–1 Northern Ireland W · Jessica Silva
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Portugal W win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
77′We published Portugal W at 78%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
83′We published Portugal W at 78%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Portugal W 3–1 Northern Ireland W · Jessica Silva
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Portugal W 3–1 Northern Ireland W · Carole Costa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Northern Ireland W · On: Naomi McLaughlin · Off: Kess Elmore Corrected
86′Carole Costa scores for Portugal W on 83′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Portugal W win: 78% at kick-off, 100% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Portugal W · On: Carolina Tristão · Off: Andreia Jacinto Corrected
88′We published Portugal W at 78%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Northern Ireland W · On: Charlotte Havern · Off: Keri Halliday Corrected
FTFULL TIME Portugal W 3–1 Northern Ireland W
FTPortugal W 3–1 Northern Ireland W · Portugal W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Portugal W win78%

Draw12%

Northern Ireland W win10%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:15

RefereeSilvia Gasperotti

Line-ups

Portugal W

4-1-3-2

Northern Ireland W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Portugal W

Northern Ireland W

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Portugal W	7	+17	18
39	Northern Ireland W	7	−3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Portugal W

4-1-3-2

12 P. Sousa

3 L. C. Sousa Alves

15 C. Costa

18 C. Correia

5 J. Marchao

13 F. Pinto

14 D. Silva

16 A. Faria

6 A. Jacinto

7 S. Ribeiro

9 C. Santiago

Coach · Francisco Neto

Substitutes

1 · I. Teixeira Pereira

22 · N. Pina

19 · D. Gomes

4 · N. Rodrigues

17 · A. Marques

20 · N. Bravo

21 · C. Tristao

8 · A. Norton

11 · T. Pinto

10 · J. Silva

2 · F. Castro

23 · T. Encarnacao

Northern Ireland W

4-4-2

1 J. Burns

2 R. McKenna

20 F. Morgan

7 E. Mason

15 R. Holloway

9 C. Howe

6 A. Kerr

3 N. Johnson

22 E. Cassap

10 K. Halliday

11 K. Elmore

Coach · T. Oxtoby

Substitutes

23 · L. Perry

12 · M. Harvey-Clifford

18 · S. McMaster

5 · A. Sweetlove

4 · B. McPartlan

16 · C. Schofield

21 · C. Havern

17 · L. Grant

19 · N. Mclaughlin

14 · L. Wade

13 · L. McFarland

Our number · portugal w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

78% The market86%

Us78%

~~Market~~86%

We make Portugal W a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · portugal w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 78% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portugal W win	78%	86%	−8
Draw	12%	10%	+2
Northern Ireland W win	10%	4%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Both teams to score	49%	29%	+20
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	44%	0
Portugal W or draw	90%	96%	−6
Portugal W clean sheet	46%	–	–
Northern Ireland W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 2.3 3.8 1 10.1 5.7 2.7 2 11.6 9.0 3.5 3 10.1 7.8 3.0 4 6.5 5.0 5 3.4 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Portugal W down, Northern Ireland W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOR 0–4 POR · NOR 1–2 POR · POR 4–0 NOR

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

PORTUGAL W

WWWWLW4–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 4–0

NORTHERN IRELAND W

LWWLLL0–1 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Switzerland W	7	+17	19
2	Portugal W	7	+17	18
3	Finland W	7	+11	18
4	England W	7	+10	18
5	Scotland W	7	+24	17
6	Belgium W	7	+22	17
7	Wales W	7	+13	17
8	Germany W	6	+17	16
9	Hungary W	7	+11	16
10	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
11	Spain W	6	+18	15
12	Kosovo W	7	+16	15
13	Croatia W	7	+11	15
14	Norway W	7	+4	15
15	Netherlands W	7	+11	14
16	Denmark W	6	+7	14
17	Turkey W	7	+6	14
18	France W	6	+6	13
19	Italy W	7	+10	12
20	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
21	Republic of Ireland W	7	+8	12
22	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
23	Greece W	5	+5	12
24	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
25	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
26	Czechia W	7	+8	11
27	Estonia W	6	+5	11
28	Sweden W	7	+5	11
29	Lithuania W	7	+3	11
30	Romania W	5	+6	10
31	Belarus W	5	+7	9
32	Iceland W	7	−5	9
33	Austria W	7	−5	7
34	Kazakhstan W	5	−5	7
35	Albania W	7	−6	7
36	Fiji W	4	0	6
37	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
38	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
39	Northern Ireland W	7	−3	6
40	Slovakia W	7	−11	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Israel W	7	−14	6
43	Moldova W	4	+1	5
44	Slovenia W	7	−13	4
45	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
46	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
47	Samoa W	3	−8	3
48	Ukraine W	7	−15	3
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Poland W	7	−10	1
51	Armenia W	4	−12	1
52	Andorra W	6	−13	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Serbia W	7	−17	1
55	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
56	Tonga W	1	−3	0
57	Georgia W	4	−6	0
58	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
59	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
60	Latvia W	6	−13	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0