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Poland W v Belgium W

Poland W

3–2After penalties

Belgium W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · TUE 13 OCT · Polsat Plus Arena

After 90 minutesGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Poland W 2–1 Belgium W POLAND W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Poland W win~~53%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.332

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.601

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–1, the score after 90 minutes. It was 3–2 after extra time; Poland W won 4–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay33 notes · 59 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Poland W win at 53%.
0′⚽ GOAL · 42' Poland W 2–1 Belgium W · Ewa Pajor (assist P. Sarapata)
0′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Belgium W · On: Amy Little · Off: Sari Kees Corrected
0′⚽ GOAL · 51' Poland W 2–1 Belgium W · Amy Little (assist Tessa Wullaert)
0′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Poland W · On: Aleksandra Zaremba · Off: Weronika Zawistowska Corrected
0′⚽ GOAL · 67' Poland W 2–1 Belgium W · Paulina Tomasiak (assist Oliwia Wos)
0′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Paulina Dudek · Poland W
0′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Belgium W · On: Isabelle Iliano · Off: Marie Detruyer Corrected
0′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Belgium W · On: Luna Vanzeir · Off: Saar Janssen Corrected
0′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Amber Tysiak · Belgium W
0′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Nina Patalon · Poland W
0′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Isabelle Iliano · Belgium W
0′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Belgium W · On: J. Matthys · Off: jill janssens Corrected
0′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Belgium W · On: Jarne teulings · Off: Mariam Toloba Corrected
2′Little has changed for our model: Poland W 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
41′Poland W ahead on 42′ through Ewa Pajor. 0–0. 0–0 · 44–30–26
45′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
47′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
54′Amy Little scores for Belgium W on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–37–24
57′We said Poland W at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–39–24
64′63′ and it is 2–1: Ewelina Kamczyk on the scoresheet for Poland W. 2–1 · 78–17–4
67′We said Poland W at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–48–21
72′67′ and it is 2–1: Paulina Tomasiak on the scoresheet for Poland W. 2–1 · 82–16–3
75′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
78′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
80′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 2–1 · 87–12–1
85′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
89′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′67′ and it is 2–1: Paulina Tomasiak on the scoresheet for Poland W. 2–1 · 77–18–5
94′67′ and it is 2–1: Paulina Tomasiak on the scoresheet for Poland W. 2–1 · 78–17–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
96′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–4
98′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
100′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 2–1 · 81–16–3
100′Belgium W ahead on 105′ through Jarne teulings. 2–2. 2–2 · 36–41–23
105′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 105' Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
105′⚽ GOAL · 105' Poland W 2–2 Belgium W · Paulina Tomasiak
106′We said Poland W at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–61–16
106′⚽ GOAL · 105' Poland W 2–2 Belgium W · Amber Tysiak
106′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 36% now
106′THE CALL SWINGS Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Poland W win 36%)
106′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 106' Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
108′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 21–65–14
110′We said Poland W at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 18–69–13
111′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Poland W · On: magdalena sobal · Off: P. Sarapata Corrected
111′SUBSTITUTION · 110' Poland W · On: Natalia Padilla Bidas · Off: Aleksandra Zaremba Corrected
114′We said Poland W at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 12–79–8
114′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 114' Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
116′Ewa Pajor scores for Poland W on 116′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 93–7–0
116′⚽ GOAL · 116' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Jarne teulings
116′⚽ GOAL · 116' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Ewa Pajor
116′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 116' Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
116′THE CALL SWINGS · 116' Poland W win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
118′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 3–2 · 94–6–0
120′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
120′Ewa Pajor scores for Poland W on 116′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 100–0–0
120′Poland W ahead on 122′ through Paulina Dudek. 3–2. 3–2 · 100–0–0
120′Belgium W ahead on 124′ through Luna Vanzeir. 3–2. 3–2 · 100–0–0
120′126′ and it is 3–2: Amy Little on the scoresheet for Belgium W. 3–2 · 100–0–0
120′128′ and it is 3–2: Natalia Padilla Bidas on the scoresheet for Poland W. 3–2 · 100–0–0
120′We said Poland W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–2 · 100–0–0
120′SUBSTITUTION · 120' Belgium W · On: Lore Jacobs · Off: Elena Dhont Corrected
120′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Paulina Tomasiak · Poland W
120′⚽ GOAL · 42' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Ewa Pajor (assist P. Sarapata)
120′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Belgium W · On: Amy Little · Off: Sari Kees Corrected
120′⚽ GOAL · 51' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Amy Little (assist Tessa Wullaert)
120′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Poland W · On: Aleksandra Zaremba · Off: Weronika Zawistowska Corrected
120′⚽ GOAL · 67' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Paulina Tomasiak (assist Oliwia Wos)
120′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Paulina Dudek · Poland W
120′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Belgium W · On: Isabelle Iliano · Off: Marie Detruyer Corrected
120′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Belgium W · On: Luna Vanzeir · Off: Saar Janssen Corrected
120′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Amber Tysiak · Belgium W
120′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Nina Patalon · Poland W
120′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Isabelle Iliano · Belgium W
120′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Belgium W · On: J. Matthys · Off: jill janssens Corrected
120′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Belgium W · On: Jarne teulings · Off: Mariam Toloba Corrected
120′⚽ GOAL · 105' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Jarne teulings (assist Tessa Wullaert)
120′SUBSTITUTION · 110' Poland W · On: magdalena sobal · Off: P. Sarapata Corrected
120′SUBSTITUTION · 110' Poland W · On: Natalia Padilla Bidas · Off: Aleksandra Zaremba Corrected
120′⚽ GOAL · 116' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Ewa Pajor
120′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Poland W win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
120′⚽ GOAL · 121' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Tessa Wullaert
120′⚽ GOAL · 122' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Paulina Dudek
120′PENALTY MISSED · 123' Jarne teulings · Belgium W
120′PENALTY MISSED · 124' Ewa Pajor · Poland W
120′PENALTY MISSED · 124' Luna Vanzeir · Belgium W
120′⚽ GOAL · 125' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Ewelina Kamczyk
120′⚽ GOAL · 126' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Amy Little
120′⚽ GOAL · 127' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Adriana Achcińska
120′⚽ GOAL · 127' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Janice Cayman
120′⚽ GOAL · 128' Poland W 3–2 Belgium W · Natalia Padilla Bidas
FTFULL TIME Poland W 3–2 Belgium W
FTFULL TIME Poland W 2–1 Belgium W
FTPoland W 2–1 Belgium W after 90 minutes, as graded · Poland W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Poland W win53%

Draw18%

Belgium W win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

VenuePolsat Plus Arena

RefereeIvana Martincic

Line-ups

Poland W

4-2-3-1

Belgium W

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Poland W

Belgium W

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Belgium W	7	+22	17
50	Poland W	7	−10	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Poland W

4-2-3-1

22 K. Seweryn

3 W. Zieniewicz

5 O. Wos

4 P. Dudek

15 M. Kokosz

23 A. Achcinska

7 P. Sarapata

21 P. Tomasiak

8 E. Kamczyk

10 W. Zawistowska

9 E. Pajor

Coach · Nina Patalon

Substitutes

1 · N. Radkiewicz

12 · J. Wozniak

2 · M. Wiankowska

14 · J. Walentowicz

16 · K. Skupien

18 · M. Piekarska

6 · A. Zaremba

17 · G. Grzybowska

20 · Z. Witek

19 · N. Padilla

13 · K. Maciazka

11 · M. Sobal

Belgium W

5-3-2

21 L. Seynhaeve

17 J. Janssens

2 S. Kees

4 A. Tysiak

16 Z. Mertens

22 S. Janssen

20 M. Detruyer

11 J. Cayman

15 A. Toloba

9 T. Wullaert

13 E. Dhont

Coach · Elisabet Gunnarsdottir

Substitutes

12 · D. Lemey

1 · N. Evrard

5 · I. Iliano

8 · C. Brackman

3 · A. Littel

23 · K. Missipo

10 · J. Teulings

14 · L. Jacobs

7 · A. Bosteels

18 · L. Vanzeir

6 · K. Helsen

19 · J. Mathys

Our number · poland w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

53% The market37%

Us53%

~~Market~~37%

We make Poland W a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · poland w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Poland W win	53%	37%	+16
Draw	18%	27%	−9
Belgium W win	29%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	71%	55%	+16
Both teams to score	68%	59%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	87%	78%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	50%	35%	+15
Poland W or draw	71%	64%	+8
Poland W clean sheet	22%	–	–
Belgium W clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 5.3 2.9 1 6.8 6.9 6.3 3.2 2 5.8 8.9 6.8 3.5 3 4.2 6.4 4.9 2.5 4 2.2 3.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Poland W down, Belgium W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BEL 1–0 POL

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

POLAND W

LLLLLL1–4 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

BELGIUM W

WDDWWW5–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 6–0 · 7–0 · 1–0

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Switzerland W	7	+17	19
2	Portugal W	7	+17	18
3	Finland W	7	+11	18
4	England W	7	+10	18
5	Scotland W	7	+24	17
6	Belgium W	7	+22	17
7	Wales W	7	+13	17
8	Germany W	6	+17	16
9	Hungary W	7	+11	16
10	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
11	Spain W	6	+18	15
12	Kosovo W	7	+16	15
13	Croatia W	7	+11	15
14	Norway W	7	+4	15
15	Netherlands W	7	+11	14
16	Denmark W	6	+7	14
17	Turkey W	7	+6	14
18	France W	6	+6	13
19	Italy W	7	+10	12
20	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
21	Republic of Ireland W	7	+8	12
22	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
23	Greece W	5	+5	12
24	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
25	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
26	Czechia W	7	+8	11
27	Estonia W	6	+5	11
28	Sweden W	7	+5	11
29	Lithuania W	7	+3	11
30	Romania W	5	+6	10
31	Belarus W	5	+7	9
32	Iceland W	7	−5	9
33	Austria W	7	−5	7
34	Kazakhstan W	5	−5	7
35	Albania W	7	−6	7
36	Fiji W	4	0	6
37	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
38	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
39	Northern Ireland W	7	−3	6
40	Slovakia W	7	−11	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Israel W	7	−14	6
43	Moldova W	4	+1	5
44	Slovenia W	7	−13	4
45	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
46	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
47	Samoa W	3	−8	3
48	Ukraine W	7	−15	3
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Poland W	7	−10	1
51	Armenia W	4	−12	1
52	Andorra W	6	−13	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Serbia W	7	−17	1
55	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
56	Tonga W	1	−3	0
57	Georgia W	4	−6	0
58	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
59	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
60	Latvia W	6	−13	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0