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Northern Ireland W v Portugal W

Northern Ireland W

0–4Full time

Portugal W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Inver Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Northern Ireland W 0–4 Portugal W PORTUGAL W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portugal W win~~51%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.114

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Portugal W win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Portugal W was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 25–27–47
1′KICK-OFF Northern Ireland W v Portugal W
4′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Northern Ireland W
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Northern Ireland W 0–1 Portugal W
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' Northern Ireland W 0–1 Portugal W · Telma Encarnacao
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' aimee kerr · Northern Ireland W
12′Telma Encarnacao scores for Portugal W on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–17–75
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Portugal W win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
15′We published Portugal W at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Northern Ireland W 0–2 Portugal W · Telma Encarnacao
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Northern Ireland W 0–2 Portugal W · Jessica Silva
24′22′ and it is 0–2: Jessica Silva on the scoresheet for Portugal W. 0–2 · 1–5–93
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Portugal W win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Northern Ireland W 0–3 Portugal W · Jessica Silva
28′Portugal W ahead on 28′ through Rebecca Holloway. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Northern Ireland W 0–3 Portugal W · Rebecca Holloway
34′We published Portugal W at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
40′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Fionnula Morgan · Northern Ireland W
45′SECOND HALF Northern Ireland W 0–3 Portugal W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Northern Ireland W · On: Kess Elmore · Off: Emily Cassap Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Northern Ireland W · On: Casey Howe · Off: Sarah Jane Mcmaster Corrected
48′HALF-TIME Northern Ireland W 0–3 Portugal W
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Fatima Pinto · Portugal W
63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Portugal W
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Northern Ireland W · On: C Chambers · Off: Lauren Wade Corrected
64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Catarina Amado · Portugal W
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Portugal W · On: Andreia Norton · Off: Andreia Faria Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Portugal W · On: Lúcia Alves · Off: Telma Encarnacao Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' C Chambers · Northern Ireland W
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Northern Ireland W · On: Mia Moore · Off: aimee kerr Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Portugal W · On: Nelly Rodrigues · Off: Joana Marchão Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Portugal W · On: Carolina Santiago · Off: Jessica Silva Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Northern Ireland W · On: Charlotte Havern · Off: Natalie johnson Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Northern Ireland W 0–4 Portugal W · Rebecca Holloway
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Northern Ireland W 0–4 Portugal W · Fatima Pinto
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Portugal W · On: Dolores Silva · Off: Andreia Jacinto Corrected
94′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Portugal W
FTFULL TIME Northern Ireland W 0–4 Portugal W
FTNorthern Ireland W 0–4 Portugal W · Portugal W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Northern Ireland W win28%

Draw21%

Portugal W win51%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Inver Park

Referee · Iuliana Elena Demetrescu

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Northern Ireland W

4-1-4-1

1 J. Burns

18 S. McMaster

20 F. Morgan

15 R. Holloway

7 E. Mason

3 N. Johnson

2 R. McKenna

6 A. Kerr

4 B. McPartlan

22 E. Cassap

14 L. Wade

Coach · T. Oxtoby

Substitutes

5 · A. Sweetlove

8 · M. Moore

9 · C. Howe

10 · K. Halliday

11 · K. Elmore

12 · M. Harvey-Clifford

13 · L. McFarland

16 · C. Schofield

17 · L. Grant

19 · C. Chambers

21 · C. Havern

23 · L. Perry

Portugal W

4-1-2-1-2

1 I. Teixeira Pereira

2 C. Amado

19 D. Gomes

18 C. Correia

5 J. Marchao

13 F. Pinto

11 T. Pinto

6 A. Jacinto

16 A. Faria

23 T. Encarnacao

10 J. Silva

Coach · Francisco Neto

Substitutes

3 · L. C. Sousa Alves

4 · N. Rodrigues

7 · S. Ribeiro

8 · A. Norton

9 · C. Santiago

12 · P. Morais

14 · D. Silva

15 · C. Costa

17 · A. Marques

20 · N. Bravo

21 · R. Ferreira

22 · N. Pina

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Northern Ireland W

4-1-4-1

1 J. Burns

18 S. McMaster

20 F. Morgan

15 R. Holloway

7 E. Mason

3 N. Johnson

2 R. McKenna

6 A. Kerr

4 B. McPartlan

22 E. Cassap

14 L. Wade

Coach · T. Oxtoby

Substitutes

5 · A. Sweetlove

8 · M. Moore

9 · C. Howe

10 · K. Halliday

11 · K. Elmore

12 · M. Harvey-Clifford

13 · L. McFarland

16 · C. Schofield

17 · L. Grant

19 · C. Chambers

21 · C. Havern

23 · L. Perry

Portugal W

4-1-2-1-2

1 I. Teixeira Pereira

2 C. Amado

19 D. Gomes

18 C. Correia

5 J. Marchao

13 F. Pinto

11 T. Pinto

6 A. Jacinto

16 A. Faria

23 T. Encarnacao

10 J. Silva

Coach · Francisco Neto

Substitutes

3 · L. C. Sousa Alves

4 · N. Rodrigues

7 · S. Ribeiro

8 · A. Norton

9 · C. Santiago

12 · P. Morais

14 · D. Silva

15 · C. Costa

17 · A. Marques

20 · N. Bravo

21 · R. Ferreira

22 · N. Pina

Our number · portugal w winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

51% The market73%

Us51%

~~Market~~73%

We make Portugal W a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · portugal w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 77% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Northern Ireland W win	28%	9%	+19
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Portugal W win	51%	73%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	42%	56%	−14
Both teams to score	44%	43%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	65%	77%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	21%	35%	−13
Northern Ireland W or draw	49%	27%	+22
Northern Ireland W clean sheet	24%	–	–
Portugal W clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.2%

0123450 6.4 16.2 9.4 4.4 1 11.9 9.7 8.9 4.2 2 4.3 6.0 4.3 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Northern Ireland W down, Portugal W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Northern Ireland W are at home.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Northern Ireland W, 1.41 for Portugal W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–2 POR · POR 4–0 NOR

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

NORTHERN IRELAND W

LLWWLL0–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

PORTUGAL W

WWWWWL2–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0